Sep-Tober Monday; 8th warmest October? 2011 Jekyll-Hyde temps

Mild Monday starts the week:

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A promising Monday morning sky at the weather lab

Today should be the warmest day this week in Minnesota. This will be the day to get out and rake a few more leaves, take a bike ride or stroll or get in that last round of golf.

64 degrees forecast high for the metro and southern Minnesota today.

53 degrees average high Monday

+11 degrees vs. average if we make 64 degrees today!

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Cooler front, spotty rain:

A gathering low pressure system will slide south of Minnesota Tuesday. The system will bring cooler winds, and a chance of spotty showers. Most of the rain may form east of Minnesota into Wisconsin. Right now the models are keeping any precip on the lighter side for Minnesota, with totals generally less than .10″.

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A cooler push of dry air late this week will return temps close to normal Wednesday thorugh Friday. Highs will hover near 50 with lows in the 30s.

Mild Halloween?

The maps are hinting at moderating temps again by the weekend, with mild air pushing in by Sunday and into Halloween. It’s still a week out, but Halloween still looks potentially mild and dry, with a high in the upper 50s to near 60. Trick or treat temps should be in the 50s!

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Top 10 warmest October?

+ 8.3 degrees vs. average for October temps at MSP through Sunday!

58.8 degrees – average temperature so far in October at MSP Airport

59.3 degrees - warmest October on record in 1947

This week’s cool snap will bring our October average temperature a little closer to reality, but it still looks like this mild month may go down as one of the 10 warmest Octobers on record.

Depending on how this week plays out, it looks like we may end up with an average october temp of around 55 degrees. That would be good enough for the 8th warmest October on record at MSP Airport.

OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES

NWSFO.. MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL MINNESOTA

MODERN DAY RECORDS

10 WARMEST

59.3…1947

58.1…1963

57.8…1900

57.4…1953

56.6…1924

56.5…1920/56

55.4…1914/38

54.5…1897

54.4…1931

54.3…2007

2011 Temps: A Jekyll & Hyde year

2011 has shown some interesting temperature trends in Minnesota. Basically the year started cool with the first 5 montsh below average, Then in June somebody flipped the heat switch on, and the past 5 months have been significantly warmer than average.

We can probably point to the signature of a fading La Nina in spring as one possible reason for the shift.

For the year MSP Airport is running about .85 degrees warmer than average in 2011.

Temps vs. average at MSP Airport in 2011

Jan -1.1

Feb -1.4

Mar -2.7

Apr -0.4

May -0.9

Jun +1.1

Jul +5.6

Aug +2.4

Sep +0.9

Oct + 5.0 (estimated)

Drought expanding:

October rainfall deficits are over an inch now in much of Minnesota, and 3 to 4″ below average since August 1st. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows the effects.

A full 80% of Minnesota is now “abnormally dry” or in various stages of drought.

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2011 Growing Season Ends: 172 days at MSP Airport

May 3rd – last 32 at MSP this spring

October 21st – First 32 at MSP this fall

172 days 2011 growing season

161 days long term average growing season at MSP Airport

171 days growing season at MSP in 2010

Friday’s official low of 32 degrees ended the growing season at MSP Airport. It wasn’t “killing frost” in many areas, the weather lab roses are still blooming on October 24th!

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Enjoy!

PH

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