No need to rush into winter

Now that we have the offical winter outlook from NOAA we can perhaps ease our way into the cold and enjoy a little more autumn weather for late October and early Novemeber. Here's the eight to fourteen day temperature forecast for last weekend in October and the first couple days of November. As a reminder, the normal maximum and minimum for this time of the year are dropping to near 50 and lows near 32 degrees.

Extending the long range outlook through November we see odds appear to favor an easing into a cold and snowy pattern. Here's the temperature outlook for the month of November, released by NOAA this morning. Marry this graphic with the December through February outlook and you might surmise changes set in the deeper we go into November. Thanksgiving is usually about the time our winter weather pattern sets in.

For those wondering about snowfall for the winter, odds posted by the Climate Prediction Center pattern above normal moisture with the cold. Overall the outlook is aligned with the Almanac and other prognasticators. I just work on trying to get the next couple of days accurate.

Why all the attention on the outlooks when you've got plans for the weekend? Because there is not much going on until late Saturday. Winds will be on the light side and temperatures will be at or above normal. Afternoon sunshine should feel pretty nice on Friday.

Clouds thicken late in the day on Saturday and a band of showers is likely to show up in northwest Minnesota around dark and sweep east overnight. Timing in our favor, would put the wet weather east of the region by mid morning on Sunday.

To validate the absence of problematic weather, here's the visible satellite image from mid afternoon.

If Mother Nature can excite the atmosphere sufficiently, some places may receive up to a quarter inch of rain overnight on Saturday. The GFS model suggests the most likely area for measureable rainfall would be from the Iron Range to Duluth.

Not to throw water on the weekend party, we will lose about ten minutes of daylight between now and Monday. Time to get at those outdoor chores!

CE