Thursday heat spike! 10th warmest summer? Tropical trouble?

Today is the first day of meteorological fall, but it will feel like the middle of July!

Altocumulus at sunrise Thursday portends a hot day ahead.

A brief but intense heat surge will push temps into the 90s today and send dew points well into the tropical 70s.

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With Amazon Jungle heat and humidity and a cold front approaching, scattered T-Storms will roam through central and northern Minnesota. I can't rule out a stray storm reaching as far south as the metro today, but the best chances will be from Willmar & St. Cloud through Brainerd and the Iron Range to Ely.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop.

The heat won't last; a cool front will slide through early Friday and push temps back close to normal with high in the upper 70s.

There is a slight risk for severe storms as the front pushes through Thursday night into early Friday.

Summer 2011: 10th warmest on record?

Another meteorological summer is in the books in Minnesota, and it appears we've just sweated through another "top 10 weather event. If my math is correct (we'll wait for the climate gurus to confirm) summer 2011 ties for the 10th warmest summer on record at MSP Airport.

My numbers show an average temperature this summer (June, July & August) of 74.0 degrees. If that's right, that would tie for the 10th warmest summer on record.

Last summer was the 5th warmest on record at 74.2 degrees. The hottest summer ever? 1988 when we sweated through 44 days at or above 90 degrees and complied an average summer temp of 75.5 degrees.

Top Ten Warmest Summers in the Twin Cities

----------------------------------------

Rank Ave Temp Year

1 75.5 1988

2 75.2 1933

3 74.3 1949

74.3 2006 tie

5 74.2 1936

74.2 1894/2010 tie

9 74.1 1955

74.1 1921 tie

74.1 1937 tie

10 74.0 1983

74.0 2005/2011*? tie

Tropical Storm Lee: Threat to New Orleans?

While we're wathicng Katia, tropical trouble may be sneaking up on us in the Gulf of Mexico.

A persistent area of cloud cover "Invest 93" shows signs of developing into a Tropical Storm Lee in the coming days.

The analysis from NHC Thursday morning:

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY

WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY

UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO

BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS

ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

Where will "Lee" go?

If Lee forms and moves slowly as expected, he could dump heavy rains of 10" to 20" along the Gulf coast in the next week. Given the weak steering currents in the Gulf, Lee could go anywhere.

Take a look at the crazy tracks from the forecast models!

A few of the models suggest hurricane intensity for Lee.

Stay tuned!

PH