Keep an eye to the western sky today.
A stunningly gorgeous morning will give way to increasing storm coverage this afternoon as a cold front pushes southeast through Minnesota.
The best chance for storms will be this morning in northwest Minnesota, and storm chances will grow from northwest to southeast today.
NOAA experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRR) model radar output paints a growing area of storms from north-central MN to west of the metro by 1pm today.
It looks like the best window for storms in the greater Twin Cities metro will be between 3pm and 7pm today. I expect a SPC will issue a severe thunderstorm watch today for much of central and eastern Minnesota. We will likely see a few warnings issued today.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has stamped most all of Minnesota under a slight risk fro severe weather today. The primary threats will be high winds and hail with any storms that do reach severe limits. (58 mph winds, 1″+ diameter hail)
SPC issues 3 different “categorical” risk areas, slight-moderate and high. Here’s the breakdown of what they mean, in terms of severe weather probabilities within 25 miles of any one point.
Track the developing storms today here:
Cool front brings beautiful Wednesday & Thursday!
Behind the front, expect a change in air masses. A cooler and drier puff of Canadian air will slip in Wednesday into Thursday. Look for highs in the 70s Wednesday, with low 80s south. Dew points in the lower 50s south and 40s up north will give us a little September preview!
State Fair Preview: Classically warm & summery?
Looking ahead to the start of the State Fair next week, it looks like summery weather may hold. Signs are a moderately strong ridge of high pressure will build back into the Upper Midwest. That could mean classic “State Fair Weather” with highs into the 80s and a touch of humidity. Just perfect for a cool drink…or a hot corn dog?