Severe Summer of 2011; Weekend thunder threat; Emily lives?

The summer of 2011 has featured plenty of thundery wet weekends. Why should this weekend be any different?

A weak slow moving low pressure system will be strong enough to trigger some scattered bouts of showers & T-Storms this weekend in Minnesota. The first few scattered storms will fire Friday night.

-Twin Cities radar loop

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A few of the storms Saturday may reach severe limits. (58 mph+ winds & 1″ diameter hail)

SPC has tattooed a slight risk for severe weather across most of Minnesota for Saturday.

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The system should pull out of Minnesota Sunday. Look for a return to mostly sunny skies and pleasant temperatures and humidity levels by Sunday afternoon. Sunday looks like the sunnier, nicer day this weekend for a stroll through the art fair or lounging at your favorite beach.

“Severe Summer” of 2011:

If you think there’s been a lot of weather warnings this summer, you’re right. Another active severe weather season has kept the weather lab hopping and your weather radio beeping more than usual.

To be sure, this has not been as tornadically crazy of a summer as 2010, when 113 tornadoes skipped across Minnesota. The character of this severe weather season has been different that 2010, with more severe thunderstorms and damaging straight line wind events.

Here are some great stats on the severe summer of 2011 from the good folks at Twin Cities NWS.

(Click images to enlarge!)

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Fortunately we are on the downslope of the severe weather “climatology” curve in Minnesota as we move through August. The graphic below shows the peak of severe weather activity in June and a secondary peak in July.

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Emily lives?

Emily literally dropped off the radar yesterday, but there are signs the remnant circulation may be reborn as it emerges into the Bahamas this weekend.

NHC gives Emily a 60% chance of regenerating into a tropical storm. Most of the models take the new Emily east of Florida into the Atlantic.

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SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED

BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS

OF EMILY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS

TIME…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR

SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…60

PERCENT…OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT

48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH.

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Stay tuned!

I’m off on vacation next week exploring the northern half of our great state of Minnesota. Watch out for stray golf balls around Brainerd…and Angry Trout…can you have a table ready sometime late next week?

Enjoy listening to MPR weather next week in the highly capable hands of Craig Edwards & Bill Endersen.

Have a great week everybody!

PH

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