MN: Taste of fall ahead? GFS: Florida hurricane late next week?

The weather maps are looking a little scary in the weather lab this morning.

Last night’s north metro flash flood dumped 2″ to 3″+ rain totals in the north metro. Some rainfall reports below, including nearly a month’s worth of rain in Roseville!

MPX: 5 Nw Roseville [Anoka Co, MN] nws employee reports HEAVY RAIN of M3.21 INCH at 11:00 PM CDT — heavy rain fell during the evening on tuesday…august 16.

MPX: 3 Nne Maplewood [Ramsey Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.50 INCH at 01:10 AM CDT —

MPX: 3 Ese Champlin [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.20 INCH at 10:35 PM CDT —

MPX: Wsw Waverly [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.10 INCH at 06:43 PM CDT –

EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI : 83 / 65 / 0.85

MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 84 / 62 / 1.42

STC : ST CLOUD MN : 80 / 54 / 1.66

AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 77 / 56 / 0.72

MIC : CRYSTAL MN : 84 / 59 / 2.07

FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN : 83 / 62 / 0.14

RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 79 / 55 / T

STP : ST PAUL MN : 84 / 62 / 1.01

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NEXRAD storm total rainfall paints heavy 2″ to 3″ rainfall totals from Tuesday night in the north Metro.

The deluge put the Twin Cities into the plus category for rainfall in August. MSP Airport has picked up 2.87″ this month, and that’s .52″ above average for the month to date.

Signs of fall ahead?

I know…don’t shoot me I’m just the messenger!

We really shouldn’t be surprised to see some “blue lines” on the weather map in late August. We’re not talking about a headlong launch into fall like weather just yet…but the GFS is showing signs of cooler air pooling up in Canada in the next 7-14 days.

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There’s still plenty of warm summer like weather ahead as we move into State Fair time next week. But there are indications that before Labor Day, we could see some brief “incursions” of cooler air push south into Minnesota.

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Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s in late August???

It’s too early to write off summer yet, but it is that time of the year when we turn one eye to Canada to see what’s coming.

GFS: Florida hurricane late next week?

This one falls under the weather category of “too early to be reliable, but not to pay attention to.”

For the past 2 days now the GFS model has been insistent in bringing a hurricane to somewhere near south Florida by late next week. The models have varied in exact location from run to run, but have been consistent in the notion of a (potentially major?) hurricane approaching Florida next Thursday or Friday.

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There is a vigorous tropical wave in the Atlantic that bears watching, and the GFS is likely picking up on this and steering it westward next week.

This may be on NHC’s radar behind the scenes, but it’s just too far in advance to post anything on the potential…at least not yet.

Is this GFS “model fantasy” or a weather fact that we may have to pay attention to in the next week? Don’t bet the farm on this one….but keep an eye out for possible headlines concerning the potential for a Florida hurricane in the next week.

PH

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