Minnesota perfect? Will Emily end USA “Hurricane Drought?”

That old beer commercial might be right on the mark today. “It doesn’t get any better than this?”

Sunset 6-25-09.jpg

Talking to literally thousands of Minnesotans (And Arizonans, and Illinoisans) over the past 20 years of doing weather there are a few constant themes that emerge.

1) Everybody likes different weather. There is not one “perfect weather” ideal fro all.

2) Different weather scenarios benefit people and businesses in different ways.

-Your snowplow guy loves many 3″ snows in a season if he chagres by the plow…etc.

-Your electric utility might like a hot spell if they know about it in advance, and don’t have to buy expensive extra power on the spot market.

-And farmers like rain on days when car wash owners might not!

There’s an old saying…”There is no bad weather, just different kinds of good weather.”

That said, I can tell you that if I took a poll of all Minnesotans I think that we might get the vast majority to say that today’s weather is pretty close to perfect.

Still I know there will be those who will complain about today’s weather. It always amazed me in Arizona how people would complain about the slightest variations from “perfect.” It would be sunny, 75 degrees in December and some people complain that “It’s a little too windy today” with a 13 mph wind. Human nature I guess?

I hope you can enjoy plenty of sunshine, temperatures in the 80s, and dew points in the lower 60s, with relatively light winds today in Minnesota.

What is your idea of “perfect weather?” Or do you like (or curse the fact) that we have so much variability in our weather in Minnesota?

Hurricane Drought: Will Emily end the string?

Now this is the kind of drought I think we all could get used to!

It’s been 3 years since a hurricane has hit the USA. Nasty Hurricane Ike was the last to strike the U.S. back in September 2008…nearly 3 years ago. That makes 1055 days since the last land falling U.S. hurricane.

If no hurricanes hit the United States this year, it would be the longest lull between U.S. hurricane landfalls in recorded history, according to NOAA.

Erratic Emily is keeping forecasters at NHC guessing:

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 emily sat.gif

“THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN…WITH THE INITIAL MOTION

A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST

THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN

CONSISTENCY…AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE

PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD

DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK…AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72 HR…ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES…AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS

NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON…A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF

SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.”

The models continue to be split on Emily’s eventual path and intensity.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 emily spag.gif

The “official” NHC track seems to favor the eastern solution and creates a close shave for Florida’s east coast.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Emily nhhc.gif

Here’s another interesting way to look at Emily. The loop below shows a 72 hour animation of “precipitable water” over the Atlantic. You can see the red areas swirling through the Caribbean as Emily churns westward.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 72 hr ATL PW.gif

As we say in the weather biz…stay tuned!

La Nina: not dead yet?

The latest ENSO advisory from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center may send a bit of a chill through winter weary Minnesotans. CPC is highlighting the chance that La Nina may hang on this upcoming winter. Too early to bet the farm, and not all La Nina winters are equal in Minnesota.

A safe outlook for winter in Minnesota? Cold with occasional snow.

Enjoying today’s weather a little more?

PH

PH

Comments are closed.