37 in Hibbing! Flood Watch Tonight: Record heat by Sunday?

Did we just sleep through August and wake up in September?

A decidedly fall like air mass slipped into Minnesota early Wednesday morning. Temperatures plunged to near frosty levels in northeast Minnesota with 37 degrees in Hibbing and Embarrass!

REGIONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

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716 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS

AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS

: MAX MIN

:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN

:ASOS SITES NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA

DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT : 72 / 49 / 0.00

INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS : 72 / 40 / 0.00

BRD : BRAINERD : 73 / 51 / 0.00

GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : M / M / M

HIB : HIBBING ARPT : 70 / 37 / 0.00

:......NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.......

:

EMBM5: EMBARRASS..............: DH0600/ 75 / 37 / 0.00

KABM5: KABETOGAMA.............: DH0700/ 69 / 42 / 0.00

LEIM5: ORR 3E.................: DH0600/ 67 / 38 / 0.00

: MAX MIN

:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN

DLH : DULUTH MN : 72 / 49 / 0.00

INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN : 72 / 40 / 0.00

MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 78 / 61 / 0.00

RST : ROCHESTER MN : 72 / 56 / 0.04

STC : ST CLOUD MN : 76 / 55 / 0.00

AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 75 / 56 / 0.00

GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : M / M / M

HIB : HIBBING MN : 70 / 37 / 0.00

RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 77 / 59 / 0.01

The Twin Cities observed morning minimum temps of 61 degrees was almost balmy by comparison.

Perfect 10 Wednesday?

Wednesday may be the Chamber of Commerce weather special for Minnesota. As the cool & comfy high pressure ridge slides east, plenty of sunshine and an east wind will mean a very pleasant day for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Next System: MCS & heavy rain tonight?

A thunderstorm complex in South Dakota Wednesday morning will move slowly east into western Minnesota lat tonight. The system should expand and could intensify right over (where else?) Minnesota in the wee hours of Thursday morning.

Flood watches are posted for much of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

300 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH IS MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MORA AND RUSH

CITY...SOUTH TO THE TWIN CITIES...AND MANKATO.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD...ONE AND ONE HALF...TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL MAKE MANY LOCAL

STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING IF RAINFALL

AMOUNTS THIS HIGH CAN BE REALIZED.

Models paint two different scenarios for location of the heaviest rains. The first trends put the heavy storms from Redwood Falls to Mankato and the Twin Cities. More recent runs have played it further north, from Fargo to Brainerd, Alexandria and St. Cloud.

There is the potential for heavy (and possibly flooding) rains under the heaviest cells. The difference in location could mean the difference between more general .50" rainfall totals and 2" to 3" totals.

NAM model pains heavy 2" to 4" rainfall totals in central MN!

Here's an excerpt from the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion early Wednesday morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

617 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

".DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO

THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME AREAS INTO FRIDAY OR

SATURDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY THE HEAT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL

KEEP MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL

MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE

NATIONS MIDSECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE

WESTERN COLORADO...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. 850 MB DEW POINTS SURGE TO 12 TO 16 DEGREES

CELSIUS...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THICKNESS RIDGE WEST OF

OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REGENERATE AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MN.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD PLACED THE FOCUS SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL

AND EAST CENTRAL MN. THE LATEST MODEL PLACES THE FOCUS WEST AND

NORTH...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL MN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SO HAVE

EXPANDED THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH."

The flood watch goes into effect late tonight. In the metro, it looks like the heaviest rainfall may occur early Thursday morning. It could be a wet rush hour in the Twin Cities Thursday!

Weekend Heat Wave: Record highs & heat index of 100 to 115?

A massive sub-Tropical high pressure ridge will expand and build north into Minnesota this weekend.

GFS model 500 millibar upper air chart shows massive high pressure "heat dome" building into Minnesota by Sunday.

The result will be a barbaric heat wave. Highs may approach 100 degrees Sunday & Monday, and the heat index may reach 110 to 115 in some areas.

Heat index may approcah 115!

This is going to be serious heat folks. If we hit 100 again this year, it will be the first time MSP Airport has recorded two 100 degree days in 23 years! Anyone remember the sizzling summer of 1988? We had 44 days at or above 90 that summer!

By the end of July this year we could be over 20 days of 90 degree heat in the metro and counting. The annual average is 13 days.

Prolonged heat wave may last two weeks!

The upper air charts show a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central USA through the rest of July. The intensity of the heat may wane, but it looks like temperatures at or above 90 degrees may occur through July.

"Hot nights" the real killer?

I remember covering the Chicago Heat Wave in 1995. Over 700 people died in that brutal heat wave. In the aftermath, local health and NWS officials cited the extremely hot overnight temperatures as a major factor in heat related deaths. Temperatures stayed above 80 degrees for several nights. That kind of heat doesn't give our bodies a chance to cool off at night. Heat related illness can be cumulative, so get inside a cool place and get some rest in air conditioning if at all possible in the coming heat wave.

In times like this, Air conditioning is a real life saver, not simply a convenience!

PH