New NOAA normals may reveal face of climate change in MN

NOAA will officially release new 30 year averages (1981-2010) on July 1st, but we’re already learning some significant facts from the early data.

What we’ve learned so far may tell us a lot about the face of climate change in Minnesota.

Here are the biggest kernels so far and something to think about this Tuesday morning.

-Minnesota winter nights got a lot milder in the past 30 years. Overnight low (minimum) temperatures in January average a full 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the previous 30 year (1971-2000) data set.

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-Minnesota summer days are not getting hotter. Average high (maximum) temperatures in July show little change from the previous 30 year data set.

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The strongest climate change signals for Minnesota are occurring in winter, and at night.

-Statewide averages of annual normals of tmax and tmin show that the 1981-2010 normals are warmer than the 1971-2000 for all lower 48 states!

Much more on this in the days to come, but this data will likely confirm with hard numbers what many have been saying about climate changes in Minnesota, and the USA.

Showers bucking dry air:

Weak waves of moisture are pushing toward Minnesota this week, but they’re fighting some dry air near the surface and having a tough time getting going.

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Radar loop shows attempted showers bucking dry air this morning.

Dew points at the surface are in the 40s in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and that dry air is undercutting shower development today.

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GOES 1km visible satellite with dew points overlaid shows dry air to the east.

Look for a slow increase in showers in southwest Minnesota and a slow spread northeast today.

By late tonight & Wednesday there should be enough moisture push and upper air support to get more widespread showers going in Minnesota. Wednesday still looks like the wettest day this week.

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Models still differ on Thursday-Saturday between wet and a drier warmer weather pattern.

Stay tuned!

PH

  • Disco

    Today’s the 30th anniversary of the Edina / Roseville tornado :)

  • Michael

    Paul? There appears to be a couple really HUGE yellow, orange, and red blobs heading toward us (yikes!). Are you there? Help?