Weekend Forecast: Models pull back on storm potential

We’re inside 48 hours to our next Minnesota weathermaker, and the trend is for a warmer, weaker weather system starting Saturday night.

In fact, it’s starting to look like this weekend will feel more like spring in southern Minnesota than the possible wintery blast that some forecast models were advertising earlier this week!

The system:

Low pressure will wind up and track through southern Minnesota this weekend.

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Timing:

It looks like an initial shot of mixed rain/snow will move north through Minnesota Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The latest model trends indicate a warmer system with a significant “dry slot.”

Behind the wave of rain, the dry slot may advance into southern Minnesota…brining a break in the rain and maybe even some sun on Sunday!!

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700 mb (10,000 foot level) chart shows potential “dry slot” in southern Minnesota Sunday.

It’s starting to look like Sunday may even evolve into a nice spring-like day in southern Minnesota, including the metro. Temperatures may even surge back into the 50s.

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50s pushing north Sunday?

In the north, a mixed band of rain, sleet & snow could linger Sunday. There may be some accumulations, but snowfall totals look much lower than what the models were advertising a day ago.

The best chance for accumulating snow appears to be along and north of a Grand Forks to Duluth line.

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Heavy snow potential shifts north.

Totals:

System rainfall totals look much lighter than previously forecast. The latest NAM is printing out closer to .25″ with the initial rain shot Saturday night into early Sunday morning for the metro. The GFS is around .44″ total.

That’s much lower than the 1″+ rainfall that the GFS was touting as late as yesterday!

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Lighter rainfall totals?

Bottom line:

The forecast models are pulling back on the notion of a heavy rain event for southern Minnesota this weekend. Instead, a warmer weaker weather system is now more likely.

Forecast rainfall totals in southern Minnesota have been cut by more than half…from over an inch to .25″ to .50″ as a general range. If this verifies, it will likely lead to somewhat lower river forecasts levels next week compared to 1″+ rains.

-Latest river levels & forecasts here.

There is still the potential for heavy snow along and north of a Grand Forks to Duluth line.

This weekend may actually feel more like spring in southern Minnesota…with some sun and highs in the 50s both Saturday & Sunday.

The weather will turn windy and colder behind the storm Monday. There is the potential for some (light) “wrap around” snow on the system’s back side Monday.

This looks like yet another case of the GFS model “over forecasting” a big, scary snowstorm for Minnesota.

Enjoy the weekend…and stay tuned for any changes!

PH

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