Metro spared; 2″ to 5″ so far in SE MN

Update 3:20pm:

Morning and midday radar trends (see below) turned out to be right on. As the system slides south, the northern edge of the snow shield is grazing the southeast metro, setting up in Dakaota County.

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It looks like most of the metro will get skunked (spared?) with this system. Expect a slushy inch or so in the SE metro, especially Dakota county.

Staeady snow has been heavy at times in southeast Minnesota & northern Iowa. Here are some totals so far courtesy of the La Crosse NWS.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

228 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

…RECENT REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE AREA…

LOCATION SNOWFALL TIME LAT/LON

NORTHEAST IOWA

…ALLAMAKEE COUNTY…

WAUKON 8NW 3.2 0140 PM 43.34N 91.6W

…CLAYTON COUNTY…

MONONA 2.0 0114 PM 43.05N 91.39W

…FLOYD COUNTY…

CHARLES CITY 3.0 0136 PM 43.07N 92.68W

…HOWARD COUNTY…

CRESCO 4.7 0136 PM 43.38N 92.12W

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

…DODGE COUNTY…

DODGE CENTER 0.7 0150 PM 44.03N 92.86W

…FILLMORE COUNTY…

HARMONY 5.0 0119 PM 43.56N 92.01W

SPRING VALLEY 4.0 0113 PM 43.69N 92.39W

SPRING VALLEY 3E 3.4 1252 PM 43.68N 92.31W

…HOUSTON COUNTY…

SPRING GROVE 4N 3.2 0130 PM 43.60N 91.64W

…MOWER COUNTY…

AUSTIN 3.5 0105 PM 43.67N 92.98W

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

…LA CROSSE COUNTY…

HOLMEN 2S 2.0 0119 PM 43.95N 91.26W

WEST SALEM 1.5 0115 PM 43.90N 91.1W

…VERNON COUNTY…

VIROQUA 7SE 4.0 1225 PM 43.51N 90.83W

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING

EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

1143 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

…TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…

…DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….

..REMARKS..

0929 AM SNOW HARMONY 43.56N 92.01W

04/19/2011 E3.5 INCH FILLMORE MN PUBLIC

1015 AM SNOW ROCHESTER AIRPORT 43.91N 92.50W

04/19/2011 E2.0 INCH OLMSTED MN PUBLIC

1028 AM SNOW SPRING VALLEY 3E 43.68N 92.31W

04/19/2011 E2.4 INCH FILLMORE MN PUBLIC

1057 AM SNOW FAYETTE 9W 42.84N 91.91W

04/19/2011 E2.5 INCH FAYETTE IA PUBLIC

1059 AM SNOW CALEDONIA 6S 43.54N 91.50W

04/19/2011 E4.7 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

1100 AM SNOW AUSTIN 43.67N 92.98W

04/19/2011 E1.5 INCH MOWER MN PUBLIC

1104 AM SNOW MANTORVILLE 44.07N 92.76W

04/19/2011 E1.1 INCH DODGE MN PUBLIC

1105 AM SNOW DOUGLAS 2N 44.16N 92.57W

04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH OLMSTED MN PUBLIC

1107 AM SNOW WINONA 3S 43.99N 91.61W

04/19/2011 E1.2 INCH WINONA MN PUBLIC

1110 AM SNOW LYLE 2NE 43.54N 92.92W

04/19/2011 E3.8 INCH MOWER MN PUBLIC

1112 AM SNOW RENO 3SW 43.53N 91.33W

04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH HOUSTON MN PUBLIC

1113 AM SNOW DORCHESTER 43.47N 91.52W

04/19/2011 E2.3 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1114 AM SNOW WAUKON 8NW 43.34N 91.60W

04/19/2011 E2.1 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1116 AM SNOW LANSING 4SE 43.32N 91.16W

04/19/2011 E3.2 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA PUBLIC

1117 AM SNOW NEW HAMPTON 43.06N 92.31W

04/19/2011 E3.0 INCH CHICKASAW IA PUBLIC

1120 AM SNOW ELKADER 6SSW 42.81N 91.43W

04/19/2011 E0.7 INCH CLAYTON IA PUBLIC

1124 AM SNOW ST ANSGAR 43.38N 92.92W

04/19/2011 E3.5 INCH MITCHELL IA PUBLIC

1127 AM SNOW LA CROSSE NWS 43.82N 91.19W

04/19/2011 E1.3 INCH LA CROSSE WI PUBLIC

1131 AM SNOW SOLDIERS GROVE 43.39N 90.77W

04/19/2011 E2.8 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1132 AM SNOW STEUBEN 2SW 43.15N 90.89W

04/19/2011 E1.8 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1134 AM SNOW PRAIRIE DU CHIEN 43.03N 91.14W

04/19/2011 E1.5 INCH CRAWFORD WI PUBLIC

1136 AM SNOW GILLINGHAM 43.43N 90.45W

04/19/2011 E1.3 INCH RICHLAND WI PUBLIC

1139 AM SNOW WESTBY 3ENE 43.66N 90.82W

04/19/2011 E1.6 INCH VERNON WI PUBLIC

Update 8:45am:

Sticking with the notion of 1″ to 2″ in the metro by morning for now…but I’m seeing radar trends (and dry air near the surface) that may indicate the system is sliding south.

There is still a chance most of this system will miss the metro to the south, but I still think the next wave of precip should overrun the metro through midday into the PM.

Heavy snow still a go for the I-90 corridor, where visibilities have been under 1/2 mile in moderate to heavy snow at times.

Stay tuned as precip fights to work north today…

-Twin Cities radar loop

PH

***Original post 8:30am***

Our unseasonably late winter weather system is here.

A mixed bag of rain and snow is expanding slowly north today through southern Minnesota.

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Rain/snow mix in southern MN Tuesday morning.

The system is “temperature critical” meaning a swing of just 2 or 3 degrees in any one spot will spell the difference between rain and snow today. Colder air and dark of night should mean a change to all snow by this evening as the system slides by to the south.

As we talked about yesterday, snowfall accumulations still appear to be heaviest in southeast MN & western WI. I expect a band of 3″ to 6″+ along the I-90 corridor from Worthington to Albert Lea and Rochester to La Crosse….running up through Winona and Eau Claire.

Snowfall rates will be intense enough to overcome warm ground in these areas…and I expect some slick roadways today & tonight into early Wednesday.

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Heavy snow band south.

The overnight model runs confirm yesterday’s thinking form the weather lab, and it still appears we’ll get more of a glancing blow from Willmar through the Twin Cities to Rice Lake, with 1″ to 3″ on most lawns by Wednesday morning.

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It looks to me like most of the metro will see an inch or two on grassy areas early Wednesday morning, with the best chance of 3″ in the south & east metro.

Poor model performance again?

This system is still not in the books and anything could happen, but it looks like several model runs got it wrong again. This has been a trend this spring with Upper Midwest weather systems. The GFS (and to some degree the NAM) has been all over the map, with wildly varying snowfall projections for the metro. I wonder if the numerical modelers in Washington D.C. are paying attention.

It takes a lot of forecasting savvy and guts to stare down computer output of up to a foot of snow, and forecast an inch or two. Quite frankly it’s getting old and tiresome. The GFS in particular has had an abysmal record with snowfall projections for the Twin Cities this late winter & spring.

Expect some flakes to fly as we head through the day and tonight, mostly in the southern half of Minnesota.

PH

  • RR

    there was one model that performed very well with this event ,it was ECMWF, I know it’s hard to stare at the US models and throw them under the bus, but until they start to preform better, best to see if the ECMWF verifies first

  • Paul Huttner

    Agree about the Euro RR:

    My point is that we shouldn’t have to throw out all the U.S. models…and they have been so bad lately.

    It’s like telling your baseball team to take a bat off the rack and go hit, but only one works and you have to guess which one?

    I hope somebody at NCEP is paying attention….

    PH