Nothing simple about forecasting April snow

After crunching the model output with as much energy as I could muster, I can’t come up with any conclusion much better than the one from the experts at NOAA’s Environmental Prediction Center.

This weather-maker is a work in progress and doesn’t fit the text book guidelines for synoptic winter storms. It really shouldn’t since we are well into April. Moisture will fall in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin from Friday through early Saturday. Snow falling during the cover of darkness in the eastern Dakotas has the best chance to accumulate four or more inches on Friday evening and night.

Here’s the region outlined as the most probably area to accumulate four inches or more ending early Saturday.


That would translate to a cold rain, wet snow mix in portions of central Minnesota on Friday night with some accumulation possible by early Saturday morning. At this time it doesn’t appear that there will be much accumulation about the Twin Cities region, but we reserve the opportunity to revise that by Thursday afternoon.

Here’s how the accumulating snow probabilities pan out for more than four inches from late Friday night through Saturday, as the system churns eastward.


The models consensus track for the low pressue system is not ideally situated for a classic winter storm in Minnesota. But, again we are past winter.


Track the wintry weather potential on the Aberdeen NWS link.

Very dry air at low levels of the atmosphere in northeast and east central Minnesota may delay the onset of precipitation on Friday.

Bonus sunshine in the Twin Cities today helped to boost the temperatures into the lower 60s. Meanwhile a steady light rain fell in portions of the MInnesota River Valley around the New Ulm area.


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