Rising rivers, rain, wind, snow and a blizzard
Rain, thunder, floods, high winds, heavy snow, and a blizzard. Just another day in Minnesota weather. I almost have to pinch myself and ask if what I'm seeing on the weather maps is real!
Let's take them one by one.
Flood Update:
-Latest river levels and forecasts here
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I spoke with hydrologist Diane Cooper this afternoon from the North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen. Here's the latest on how today's rains affected rivers and forecasts.
-This morning's rainfall was generally between .50" to 1" in most watersheds in southern Minnesota. That's almost twice the amount they had fed into the river forecast models in yesterday's forecast update. As a result (especially smaller) rivers rose more rapidly today. They have updated forecasts today to reflect the heavier overnight rainfall.
-NCRFC raised flood "categories" by one level for several river points. The complete text of today's latest flood warning is here.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011
...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FORTHE MINNESOTA RIVER AT MONTEVIDEO.
* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...SANITARY SEWERS BEGIN TO BE AFFECTED AT THIS
LEVEL.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 18.3 FEET
ON MAR 29 2009.
$$
...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 34.1 FEET BY
MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 33.5 FEET
ON JUN 24 1993.
$$
...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.3 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...WATER ENCROACHING ON STATE HIGHWAY 25
BETWEEN STATE HIGHWAY 7 AND CARVER COUNTY ROAD 122.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.8 FEET
ON MAR 20 2010.
$$
...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CROW RIVER AT ROCKFORD.
* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.6 FEET BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...SANITARY SEWERS SERVING HOMES CLOSEST TO
RIVER MAY BEGIN TO BACK UP.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.1 FEET
ON JUN 26 1957.
$$
...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED WING.
* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:23 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.1 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...RED WING MILLING COMPANY MAY EXPERIENCE
BASEMENT FLOODING AND BEGIN PUMPING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.4 FEET
ON APR 17 1951.
$$
...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE REDWOOD RIVER NEAR REDWOOD FALLS.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.1 FEET BY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.6 FEET
ON APR 9 1969.
$$
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ST CROIX RIVER AT STILLWATER.
* FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 79.4 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 87.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 88.0 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 89.0 FEET...THE CITY PARK IN BAYPORT BEGINS FLOODING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 87.9 FEET
ON JUN 28 1993.
$$
-NCRFC hydrologists raised the forecast levels of the following rivers by over 1 foot today. The updated forecasts now put several river points into "top 5 flood of record" territory.
Crow @ Delano
Forecast = 21.2' this weekend. (2nd highest flood of record)
Minnesota @ New Ulm, Mankato, Henderson, Shakopee
Mississippi @ St. Paul
The latest forecast for the increasingly mighty Mississippi at St. paul is for a level of 22.4 feet by next Tuesday...and still rising. This would be the 6th highest flood of record at St. Paul, and a full 4 feet above last year's crest on 3/24/2010!
-Diane also points out that, like meteorology, flood forecasting is not an exact science. Forecasting a flood crest a week out is like forecasting a snowstorm 7 days out. We may know it's going to snow, but the science does not allow us to accurately put out a forecast of say...12.5" a week in advance.
We give a range for snowfall forecasts, and hydrologists do the same for river levels. The "number" you see on hydrographs is just the best estimate of the specific level given available data at that point in time.
Next wave of precip moving through overnight.
Part II of our current storm is ramping up in Minnesota tonight. The next wave of rain and snow is here, and it still looks like the snowfall will be heavy overnight into Wednesday through eastern North Dakota, central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
Winter storm and blizzard warnings continue.
Heavy snow band trending south?
There are some indications that the system's heavy snow band could shift 50 miles south overnight. This would place the southern edge of the heaviest snow closer to the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities metro, and could increase snowfall overall in the Twin Cities.
Some models are leaning toward a 2" to 4" range for the metro by late Wednesday, with the potential for 6" in the far northern suburbs.
Bottom line: Rain changing to snow overnight. Heaviest snow band with a potential of 6" to 12"+ includes Fargo-Alex-Brainerd-St. Cloud-Hinckley-Mora-Duluth-Rice Lake.
Best forecast for metro appears to be 2" to 4" at this point, with heavier totals possible north metro. Expect a snowy rush hour Wednesday morning in the metro, with winter storm to blizzard conditions to the north.
Gale warnings and big waves on Superior:
Gale warnings are in effect for Lake Superior. Webcam here.
An angry Lake Superior rages in Duluth.
Stay tuned!
PH