Metro: 1″ to 4″ Heavier snow S & E

The latest model runs are on track with our late winter/early spring storm system, however... there is a slight but increasing chance that the storm may slide even further south...meaning it could conceivably miss the Twin Cities area!

NWS advisories: (Click to enlarge)

With the "storm's" effects now imminent, here's what we can expect as we head through the next 24 to 36 hours.

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Today:

Scattered snow showers are lifting NE ahead of the system today. The snow will be patchy through today, but some shots of snow will fall in the southern half of Minnesota.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Temperatures should rise through the 20s and into the 30s in most areas today, keeping many roads wet instead of icy. I expect generally good driving conditions today.

Tonight:

As the low pressure system moves closer, snow will become steadier and heavier tonight. Expect snowfall coverage and intensity to pick up between 9pm and midnight in southern Minnesota, and probably after midnight in the metro. The "heaviest" snow rates should come after midnight.

Low pressure center still in Oklahoma Tuesday morning.

Temperatures should stabilize in the lower 30s tonight, and with increased snowfall rates snowfall should accumulate and slick roads will develop.

Wednesday:

Snowfall rates should peak during the morning Wednesday. Northeast winds between 10 and 20 mph will drive a wet snow. Travel will be the most difficult during the day Wednesday.

It looks like there may be a sharp cutoff in snowfall from west to east near the metro by Wednesday PM. Expect the heaviest snows in southeast Minnesota near Winona, Red Wing, Austin, Albert Lea & Rochester over to La Crosse and Eau Claire. Travel south

(I-35) and east (I-94) should be slick Wednesday.

Expect snow to end in the metro Wednesday PM from west to east, but linger in Wisconsin and SE MN.

Surface low's southern track unfavorable for heavy snow in the metro.

Snowfall totals:

Last night's NAM hinted the low pressure system may jog a little closer to Minnesota, but the overnight runs put the system back on a more southerly track.

Based on those trends I am sticking with my initial forecast snowfall totals from Monday AM.

Heavy snow band: 4" to 8"

I still expect the heaviest snow band to include Mason City, Albert Lea, Rochester, Winona, Red Wing, La Crosse & Eau Claire where 4" to as much as 8" of heavy wet snow could pile up by Wednesday night.

Twin Cities Metro: 1" to 4"

The system's snow shield looks like it may develop a sharp cutoff on the northwest side by tomorrow. That could create a pretty good "snowfall gradient" near the Twin Cities tomorrow, with lower totals around an inch or two in the northwest metro (Rogers, Anoka, Maple Grove) and closer to 4" in the southeast metro. (Lakeville, Cottage Grove)

I still believe the best snowfall range for the Twin Cities is between 1" and 4".

Snowfall totals should increase as you move south and east from the metro, with the potential for 6"+ in Red Wing, Northfield, Waseca and points south & east.

Model snowfall output suggests 2" to 3" for MSP Airport.

Model output:

The latest GFS is printing out snowfall of 1.5" for MSP Airport with this system.

(click for bigger image)

Heavy wet snow:

With temperatures close to 32 degrees for much of this event, this should be a relatively heavy wet snow. (Good snowball weather!) Snow:water ratios may be around 7:1 to 9:1 on Wednesday. Some roads may be a "slush fest" Wednesday.

Southern convection (thunderstorms) may steal some moisture:

Like many early spring storms, thunderstorms are busting out in the warmer air on the system's south side. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather in the Southern Plains with this system. The storm that form can "wring out" some moisture before it gets a chance to wrap into the system's northern side. That can reduce snowfall totals in some cases.

[image]

We may hear news reports of severe weather in the southward along the Mississippi Valley with this system.

Bottom line: Expect snow spotty snow today, with snow coverage and intensity increasing tonight into Wednesday. Overall, I do not expect this to be a major snowfall event for the metro, but travel will become more difficult as you head southeast from the Twin Cities tonight & tomorrow.

There is also a slight but increasing chance this storm will slide far enough south to largely miss the Twin Cities metro.

As we say in the weather biz...stay tuned!

PH