Breaking: Flood forecasts lowered again!

Here’s some potentially good news in a sea of bad weather this week.

Most river level forecasts have been revised lower in the next week.

The latest updates from the hydrologists at the NCRFC in Chanhassen have lowered river level forecasts for some river locations as much as 3.5 feet from forecasts earlier this week.

The changes are largely due to the latest round of cold weather this week. The cold “locks up” moisture by freezing it in place on the landscape, instead of creating the runoff that would happen with above freezing temps.

You can see all the latest river data here, but here are a few select hydrographs for some key river points in southern Minnesota.

Keep in mind that specific forecast river crest “numbers” and timing are best estimates within a wider overall forecast range. Forecasts will likey be modified in the coming days as new data is fed into hydrologic models.

Mississippi @ St. Paul: Forecast rise to 18.9′ next week.

(Down 3.5 feet from earlier forecast!)

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Crow River @ Delano: Forecast crest at 18.8′ Saturday night.

(Down 1.7 feet from earlier forecast) Forecast to fall below 17 feet again next week!

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Minnesota River @ Mankato: Forecast crest at 25′ Saturday.

(Down 2 feet from forecast earlier this week.)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 earl 1 5th.MNMKTTO.png

Minnesota @ Henderson: Forecast crest at 737.4′ Sunday.

(Down 1.1 feet from forecast earlier this week)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 earl 1 5th.MN HENDU.png

Minnesota @ Jordan: Forecast crest at 32′ Monday & Tuesday.

(Down 1 foot from earlier forecast)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 earl 1 5t MN JORRDY.png

Minnesota @ Shakopee: Forecast crest 715.8′ Tuesday & Wednesday.

(Down 1.2 feet from earlier forecasts)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 earl 1 5t savage.png

Minnesota @ Savage: Forecast crest at 713.4 Thursday.

(Down from 0.6′ from earlier forecasts)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 earl 1 5t MNreally savage.png

St. Criox @ Stillwater: Forecast rise to 87.1′ Thursday.

(Down 0.7′ from earlier forecasts)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14 1 earl 1 5t MN STILLY.png

Let’s hope these latest forecasts reflect an overall trend that keeps floodwaters a little more in check the next few days.

Next snow Tuesday?

I know, I know. I hate to even mention it. But after what looks like a few much needed dry days through the weekend, it looks like our next chance of snow could be on the horizon.

Remember models can and often do change dramatically 5 days out.

The GFS insists on brining another potentially potent low pressure system into the Upper Midwest by next Monday night and Tuesday. Take a deep breath and look at the meteogram below.

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(Click to enlarge…if you dare)

Yep. That’s 8+ inches of snow on the chart for the 12z morning run, but less from the 18z afternoon run. Remember, we don’t issue snowfall forecasts 5 days in advance and there is some indication that system could steer south. Also the GFS has grossly overforecast snow totals for the last few events. And the European model seems to suggest the southward track which could leave Minnesota high and (thankfully) dry next week.

But be aware that there is at least the possibility of significant snow next Tuesday.

Hang in there; it still looks warmer by next weekend!

PH