1″+ PM &Tonight? Edge of major storm Wednesday?

Just back from 2 (great!) days at Wolf Ridge ELC in Finland above the North Shore presenting a talk on the extreme & record weather of the past year to the 2nd annual Minnesota Phenology & Weather Observers gathering.

Many thanks to Peter Harris & the entire Wolf Ridge ELC team for hosting the event. And thanks to the many MPR listeners who showed up to greet us. It was great meeting you!

Sunshine on Lake Superior Saturday at Lutsen. I was not lucky enough to have time to ski, but we did ride the gondola up for lunch. What a view!

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Here's a quick update on the latest model runs and thinking on snow chances the next few days. I'll have a more detailed analysis Sunday PM.

Sunday & Sunday night:

A weak "open wave" will pass over Minnesota Sunday. This minor system should eek out a little light snow today into early Monday. Models are putting out maybe an inch or two, but there are some signs the system could weaken as it moves in Sunday. Right now it appears we will have little if any snow for most of Monday PM into Tuesday.

Bottom line? Expect the possibility for a minor nuisance snowfall from Sunday PM & night into early Monday AM.

On the edge of a major winter storm Tuesday night & Wednesday:

There have been several changes in the potential track of the major winter storm which is still expected in the Midwest this week. I'll give you some quick highlights rather than a lengthy description of each (contradictory) twist in the models.

-I still expect a major winter storm to hit the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this point It looks like there is a 80% chance of a plowable event from the Twin Cities south into southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and much of central Wisconsin.

-Weekend model trends track the storm further south, but there is still some chance it may "recurve" to the north, meaning it is still too early to pinpoint the heavy snow bands, and therefore to place reliable* snowfall accumulations.

*It is often not accurate (or even responsible) to forecast snowfall totals more than 24 to 48 hours in advance of these systems, as the track can and usually does vary significantly in the days preceding the storm. (How many different snowfall forecasts do you want? And which one should you "plan" for?)

-The models are coming into "closer" agreement, and we should hopefully have a better handle on storm track and where the heavy snow bands will set up (and totals) by Sunday night's model runs.

NAM hinting Twin Cities on edge of major snow by Wednesday? Stay tuned as models sort things out.

***

Bottom line: There is a high chance of snow for southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and central Wisconsin Tuesday night & Wednesday. Heavy snow (6"+) is possible somewhere between the Twin Cities and La Crosse. Forecasts should gain clarity (and hopfully accuracy and reliability!) in the next 24 hours.

Stay tuned!

PH