Cold For Now: Extended thaw in sight!

I can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and I'm pretty sure it's not an oncoming Siberian Express.

Arctic air returns this week bringing a few sub-zero nights, but there are signs that this could be the last time this winter we see temperatures this cold...for this long. It looks like a major pattern change will bring an extended spell of much milder weather starting this weekend, and lasting through most of next week.

Cold first:

The season's latest arctic assault is funneling south from Canada this week. Temperatures will hover near or just below zero in northern Minnesota today, and stay mired in the single digits to teens above zero in the south.

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It appears Tuesday morning may be the coldest this week, with temps from -20 to -30 north and -10 to -15 south, including the metro. I see 3 sub zero mornings for the metro this week, Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday.

Sub zero mornings...then a weekend warming trend.

Major Pattern Change This Weekend:

Okay now for the part most Minnesotans have been waiting to hear. It looks like a major change in the hemispheric upper air pattern is ahead starting this weekend. The persistent "Polar Vortex" over Hudson Bay has been dealing Minnesota and much of the nation a series of arctic fronts this winter. The northwest flow on the back side of the Polar Vortex has kept a steady supply of arctic air driving south from Canada's arctic regions. That pattern is about to shift.

Numerous model runs are advertising an eastward shift in the Polar Vortex over Greenland and Canada's Elsmere Island near the Arctic Circle. That should drag the cold air east, and shift our mean upper air flow from northwest to west. That will open the door to much milder Pacific air masses filtering in from the west starting this weekend. It looks like this pattern might have some staying power, and could last right through most of next week.

Extended thaw?

If the pattern holds, we could see a period of 7 to 10 days with temperatures well above average. There are indications that temperatures could run a good 10 degrees (+?) above average by the middle of next week. With average highs in the upper 20s, that could put temperatures in the upper 30s...a full 25+ degrees warmer than today!

GFS: Extended run of 30s starting this weekend?

A shot at 40?

Right now, one medium range forecast model (the GFS) is advertising a ridge of high pressure centered right over Minnesota about next Thursday February 17th. If that map verifies, the warm spell could peak in the middle of next week with high temperatures tickling 40 degrees in parts of Minnesota for the first time in 2011.

We may also see the season's first big warm up in the Central and Southern Plains. Temperatures could push 80 degrees later next week in Texas and Oklahoma, with mild 70s spilling all the way north into Kansas and Nebraska. That should pretty much take car of snow cover all the way into Nebraska and southwest Iowa...which could lead to warmer temps for Minnesota anytime our winds turn into the southwest in the coming weeks.

Breaking the back of winter?

If the warm spell lingers through next week as I expect, that would put us into the last week of February. It's too early to say the cold is over for good this winter...and we typically get at least one more cold shot with a sub zero morning in the metro the first week of March.

But I really do think this pattern change tells us the worst of winter will be over after this week! By March 1st the sun angle is just too high to sustain any big cold snaps, and milder days will mean melting snow.

No big snows in sight...yet:

Things can change in a hurry this time of year on the weather maps...but right now I don't see any big whopper snowstorms during the next 7 to 10 days. If we don't pick up much snow in the next 10 days, that would put us at around February 18th. We've only recorded .5" of snowfall so far this month at MSP. Is it possible we may end up with one month this winter with below average snowfall??

Snow not done yet though:

We're at 60.9" of snowfall so far this winter in the metro. Last March was the first in modern history with no snow in the Twin Cities, and much of Minnesota. You know that's (probably) not going to happen twice in a row...so I expect we'll probably get clobbered with at least one more big wet sloppy March storm this season.

The good side of this winter is that it has been a really great time for outdoor winter recreation. I play in a weekly Friday night pick up hockey game with "the boys of winter" at a local outdoor ice rink, and the consistent cold has produced great ice this year. As much as I want warmer weather, I will miss the great nights on the ice under the stars in a cold Minnesota sky.

Again though...I really do think the worst of winter is over after this week. Weather fingers and toes crossed on that one!

PH