Edge of snow: Models at odds

Update 6pm:

Models still in a dog fight about how much, if any, snow for the metro tomorrow night into Thursday. I’ll be back after the evening model run…to see if anything gets resolved.

Stay tuned.

PH

One look outside and you know it’s not your average Minnesota winter so far. This is your daddy’s Minnesota winter.

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Clear skies and deep snow cover reveal surface features on NASA’s MODIS Terra Satellite Monday.

(Click for bigger image)

Why should we be surprised in the Minnesota “weatherpacolypse” that is 2010? First 104 tornadoes then “Dome rupturing” snows in December. Looks like we’re getting payback for that record “snowless” march…and you know what they say about “payback.”

Here are some of the records with last weekend’s storm.

-5th biggest snowfall on record in the Metro. (17.1″)

-Biggest December snowfall on record for the Metro.

-Biggest snowfall in 19 years, since the Halloween Mega Storm in 1991.

-5th snowiest Metro December on record already with 24.2″ total.

(All time December record is 33.2″…and yes we have a shot!)

So far this season we’ve already piled up 34″ at MSP Airport. That’s 19.5″ above average so far this season…and just 6″ shy of last season’s 40.7″ total.

Top Fourteen Largest Snowfalls for Twin Cities

1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 – November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)

2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 – December 1

3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 – 23

4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 – 21

5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 – 11

6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 – 12 (Armistice Day)

7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 – 4

7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 11 – 14 (tie)

9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 – 28

10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 – 21

10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 – 9 (tie)

12. 14.7 inches: 1985 March 31

13. 14.3 inches: 1991 November 29 – 30

14. 14.1 inches: 1952 March 22 -23

Storm survey: Toss in your two cents:

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Want to tell them what you really think about forecasts leading up to last weekend’s storm? Take the post storm survey from St. Cloud State University here.

Whitest Christmas in 14 years?

Snow depth at MSP Airport is an impressive 17″ today. With the potential for additional snowfall and little melting between now and Christmas, it looks like that number may hold or even climb. The last time we had this much snow on the ground on Christmas Day was 1996, with 18″. To get to 20″ you have to go back 27 years…to 1983 the deepest snow on record.

From the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

“In 109 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 72% of the time. From 1899 to 2008 there have been 31 years with either a “zero” or a “trace.” The last time the Twin Cities has seen a brown Christmas was 2006. The deepest snow cover on December 25th was in 1983 with a hefty 20 inches.

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It looks very much like this could be the “whitest” Christmas in the metro and much of Minnesota in at least 14 years. This could be the second whitest Christmas on record if we get to 19″ of snowfall….and 20+” (The “whitest” Christmas on record?) is not out of the question!

On the edge of more snow?

The next chapter of “Clippermania 2010″ is due in tomorrow night and Thursday. This one looks a lot tamer than last weekend’s blow out, but could pile up a few inches west of the metro by Thursday PM. It appears the heaviest snow zone with this system (3″ to 6+”?) could set up west of the metro…along a Fargo-Alex-Willmar-Redwood Falls-Mankato-Rochester swath.

The metro looks to be on the eastern edge of this system initially Wednesday. The lastest indications are this system could stay mostly in west central and southwest Minnesota…and mostly miss the metro to the west.

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NAM 84 hour snowfall hints at snow band west of the metro…just edging the western Twin Cities Thursday.

How much? We are still 36 hours out from snowfall, so I’d like to see complete model runs run this morning and tonight. Let’s see what today’s model runs bring before I put a hard number on the system, but do expect more snowfall west of the metro…and maybe in the west metro.

Stay tuned…the track could change.

Bitter cold locks in:

Temperatures tumbled to -6 in the metro this morning, after a respectable -8 (coldest so far this season) Monday AM.

Bitter cold has locked in over northern Minnesota with this arctic outbreak. Check out the “fun with negative numbers” in the northland this morning.

: MAX MIN SNOW SNOW

:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTH

:ASOS SITES NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA

DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT : 4 / -16 / T / T/ 10

INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS : 1 / -27 / 0.00/ 0/ 12

BRD : BRAINERD : 8 / -11 / 0.00/ /

GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : 14 / -3 / 0.00/ /

HIB : HIBBING ARPT : 6 / -23 / 0.00/ /

:ASOS SITES NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN

ASX : ASHLAND : 14 / -4 / T / /

HYR : HAYWARD : 12 / -21 / 0.00/ /

EMBM5: EMBARRASS………..: DH0600/ -1 / -33 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 11

LEIM5: ORR 3E…………..: DH0600/ -1 / -33 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 12

Stay warm, and stay tuned as we tweak the forecast for snowfall heading into tomorrow.

PH

  • Kent

    Does anyone know the dates and amounts of the snowstorms with higher snowfall totals? I’ve been looking online and can’t seem to find data.