Here is a pretty good concensus graphic from NOAA on where the greatest potential for more than four inches of snow is likely to fall from Wednesday night through Thursday.
This dump of moisture is from what is likely to be Storm One.
To the southeast of this region there will be a band of sleet and freezing rain in MInnesota. In far southeast Minnesota the precipitation is likely to change to a cold rain.
Again from the GFS model that paints the first low in western Minnesota on Thursday (see previous blog -Taste of a Thaw), here is a graphical forecast of a secondary low which may form as the colder air pentetrates the state on Friday.
The forecast Image is of the surface pressure pattern and temperatures valid 6PM CST New Year’s Eve. The track of the center of low pressure would favor a period of moderate to heavy snow over the state on Friday and into New Year’s Eve.
This two-in-one storm system is a work in progress. I’ll keep looking for weather clues to solve this puzzle being constructed by Mother Nature. The evolution of of two distinct low pressure centers is not that rare. The second storm will feed off both the remaining mild air in Illinois and the instrusion of much colder air through the Dakotas.