Forecast: Roller coaster temps

Get ready for a temperature roller coaster ride the next few days.

While we were busy election watching, a cool front slipped through Minnesota overnight. You’ll notice a decidedly cooler breeze by late today and tonight in Minnesota.

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Temperatures will hang in the 40s for highs on Thursday, and then begin to recover into the 50s this weekend and maybe push 60 by Sunday in southern Minnesota. This looks to be the best (and last?) weekend to get those last few leaves up, so take advantage of the relatively nice weather!

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Forecast models & rapid changes:

Watching the forecast models this year is a little like watching election polls. They can turn on a dime, and there is little consistency from day to day.

Often models will advertise big temperature swings in November, only to flip flop on the trend a day later. There is often little “run-to run” consistency this time of year.

The movement and evolution of weather systems speeds up dramatically in late fall and winter. (Can you say “Octobomb?”) Numerical forecast models often have a difficult time keeping up with rapid changes. This means forecast accuracy can fall quickly as you move out in time these days.

Meteorologists definitely earn their keep as we head into winter. It is important this time of year to beware “model advertised” of big radical temperature shifts, and to keep an eye out for phantom snow storms that can pop up seemingly out of nowhere this time of year in the Upper Midwest.

Snow cover lagging up north:

We don’t see our 1st inch of snowfall in the metro on average until November 18th, but overall North American snow cover is relatively thin “upstream” in northwest Canada. This will take some of the punch out of southbound cold fronts until snow cover fills in later in the season.

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The hemispheric jet stream pattern has locked up a cold pool of air over the North Pacific. This usually means milder than average air in the northern USA, and this has been the case so far this fall.

There are signs colder air may begin to filter south later next week. Stay tuned.

Sky show:

The auroras are back over Norway these days. Check out the amazing images from spaceweather.com.

PH

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