Forecast: Big changes…thunder, cold, snow??

You have to pinch yourself to remember this is November…and winter weather awareness week in Minnesota.

After a near record high of 69 in the metro Tuesday, our delightful spell of Indian summer is about to come to an abrupt end.

Get ready for some big weather changes over the next few days in Minnesota.

Let’s break down some of the forecast variables day by day.

Wednesday: Stiff southerly breezes will linger Wednesday as Minnesota enjoys one last mild day ahead of an approaching low pressure wave. After a very mild overnight with lows in the 40s in most areas, temperatures should reach the 60s again in most areas Wednesday afternoon.

Low pressure and a trailing cold front will likely kick off a narrow band of showers and even a few T-Storms Wednesday PM in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Thunder, lighting small hail and gusty wins are possible with some of the stronger storms. There is even enough low level spin, or helicity in the atmosphere to keep an eye out for a brief, isolated, rare November tornado.

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The band of bumpy weather may roll into the Twin Cities sometime after dark Wednesday evening.

Thursday Transition:

Thursday looks like a breezy transition to colder weather. Gusty west winds will push temps into the low 50s at best, with 40s in northern Minnesota.

Friday: Friday would fall under the category of what meteorologists call a “low confidence forecast.” Forecast models have been all over the place on the track, timing and temperature profile of a low pressure system spinning up toward Minnesota from the south.

One version (today’s NAM model) pivots the low back far enough west to bring rain or snow into southeast Minnesota (including the metro) on Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures will be near the critical freezing point in the lowest mile of the atmosphere Friday. That means that there could be rain, snow, or a mix from the metro south and east. There is a possibility of accumulating snow from the metro east and south Friday into Saturday.

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Stay tuned as we work through a complicated and changeable forecast over the next few days. And remember…this is the “anything goes” weather year of 2010!

PH

  • Linda L

    Can you talk about how the current weather situation differs from the armistice day blizzard. It seems as though we’re in a similar situation. we’ve been a lot warmer than average, and her comes the rapid cooling, with a lot of available moisture…

    Love listening to your segments!!