They’re battening down the hatches on the Outer Banks.
The NHC upgraded Hurricane Earl back to a Category 4 monster hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale late Wednesday. Earl’s track has also been shifting slightly west with each passing day, and the “official” track for Earl now brings the eye just off North Carolina’s Outer Banks in the wee hours of Friday morning.
The wind field with Earl is large enough that hurricane force winds are now likely on the Outer Banks. Any westward shift of the track could bring Earl’s potentially devastating eyewall ashore. Here’s the discussion form NHC.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL
HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36
HOURS OR SO…THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS…WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO
THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK…THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD…AND
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
Stay tuned as Earl takes aim at the Outer Banks and possibly the New England this week.
You’ll notice a nip of September in the air by Friday.
An approaching cold front will kick off another bout of showers and T-Storms overnight into early Thursday. Behind the front, the season’s coldest air pushes in.
Temperatures will not climb out of the 60s in most of Minnesota Friday.
Cold fronts gain strength as we move into September for one main reason. Shorter daylight and longer nights allow more radiational cooling at night. That means air masses coming out of Canada have had more time to cool off compared to June and July. We’ve lost over 2 hours and 15 minutes of daylight since June 21st in the metro. The longer nights mean progressively more potent cold fronts as we move deeper into September and October.