Thunder Threat
It was a nice break while it lasted.
Get ready for another round of showers and thunderstorms in most of central and southern Minnesota over the next 24 hours. But this batch may be a little different.
A September like cool front will sag slowly south today through Minnesota. The frontal boundary is the focal point for scattered "garden variety" showers and storms during the morning and early PM, but may trigger a few isolated severe storms later this afternoon and evening.
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NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has laid out a slight risk for severe storms for central and southern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. I am in line with SPC thinking that the scenario today lacks a main upper air "trigger" to produce widespread severe weather. Still, with the surface boundary just north of the Twin Cities late today, there may be enough oomph for a few isolated severe storms.
SPC is calling for about a 15% chance for severe hail (1" diameter or larger) and/or damaging winds late today and this evening.
Two rain shots?
The front will hang around into Friday, but we may see two distinct waves of potential rainfall. The first one late today and tonight looks to be the lesser in terms of rainfall totals. We may see a break in rain most of Thursday, before the second stronger wave moves east late Thursday night and Friday morning. This second wave could produce some locally heavy rainfall over an inch in some areas overnight Thursday into Friday AM.
(click to enlarge images)
Overall the severe threat this week does not look as insanely high as what we've seen so far this summer season, but keep an eye out for an isolated severe storm or two later today.
PH