Autumn outlook


Here is the ninety day temperature outlook for September through November from the Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

With one week of the meteorological summer remaining, it is time to look ahead to the autumn outlook that runs through November.

Seeing a recovery to warmer tempreatures this weekend and heading into early September, the outlook for the next the next six to ten days favors above normal temperatures in our neck of the woods. Remember when you view these images regarding outlooks it shows a confidence factor not the magnitude of above or below normal temperatures.

To recap the temperatures for the summer in the Twin Cities; there have been 15 days where the mercury has reached ninety degrees or better. The thirty year average is about 13 days. Last year we reached ninety only six days, including two in May. Each month of the meteorological summer has been above normal.

For the metro, based on observations at the Twin Cities International Airport, the average temperature for June and July was about three degrees above normal. So far for August we have seen temperatures average more than six degees above normal.

We were due for a cool down and it has arrived as advertised. Yesterday morning at this time the temperature was 70 at Bemidji. This morning, our friends in the northern part of the state, are waking up to 55 degrees.

As I scanned the preliminary rainfall for the past twenty-four hours it appears that totals were as little as a tenth of an inch to about a third of an inch. Here at the Eden Prairie weather lab I recorded 0.36 inches of moisture. It was the first good rain in over a week.

By Friday expect temperatures to climb back above normal and a warm weekend looks to be in store.

In case you are wondering the normal maximum and minimum for the Twin Cites falls from 77/57 on August 31st to 66/45 by September 30th.


  • Christina Teeter

    This is good info, but how about some commentary about what I suspect to be an early changing of the leaves on many trees in the Metro?

  • Craig

    I suspect some of the leaves are starting to show change because of some summer stress and a little bit of a dry spell. As you recall most of the wetness we have exprienced was the result of very heavy downpours. Thus considerable moisture may have runoff rather than soak into the soil and the root system.

    There was a period, about the start of August where my river birch was starting to lose leaves, going to yellow. I gave the tree a rather long duration of slow watering and it recovered nicely.

    Maybe the trees and shrubs did not like the high dew points as well.

    Got an idea?