Our fresh Canadian air mass was a beautiful respite from the sticky summer of 2010. As a warm front gurgles north this weekend, humidity, heat and (a few severe) storms are back.
Expect a little bit of everything this weekend.
Let’s break down the weekend forecast one day at a time.
Most of Minnesota will enjoy a lovely evening with gradually rising humidity and gentle breezes. There will be a few scattered showers and T-Storms in far southern Minnesota along the I-90 corridor. Look for overnight lows in the 40s north, 50s central and 60s south.
Saturday morning will start cool in northeast Minnesota.
Heat and humidity will bubble back north Saturday as a warm front moves north. Thunderstorms will increase in the eastern Dakotas, southern and western Minnesota as the day wears on.
The atmosphere overhead will be unstable enough that a storm could pop up anytime Saturday, but it looks like the most organized T-Storm clusters will move from western Minnesota early Saturday toward the Twin Cites metro by Saturday evening and into Saturday night.
Highs will be mostly in the 80s. Winds south 5-15 mph.
There is a slight risk that some of the storms could be severe. The SPC has placed much of Minnesota under a slight risk for severe storms Saturday.
If severe weather occurs, the primary threat appears to be high winds and hail. A few isolated tornadoes are possible, but the atmosphere lacks widespread strong low level wind shear or “spin” to support large, long lived monster tornadoes. Translation? Maybe a spotty tornado or two but probably no big time June 17th style tornado outbreak.
Most areas may see between a thrid and three quarters of an inch of rain. A few of the storms could be “heavy rainers.” There will be enough juice in the atmosphere to produce locally heavy rainfall over an inch if storms stall out in some areas.
A few storms may linger in eastern Minnesota Sunday morning. It looks like the warm front will then move north, which puts most of Minnesota into the hot sticky tropical air mass. Look for dew points to bubble into the sticky 70s again by Sunday. Temperatures should soar into the 90s again in much of southern Minnesota.
It looks like Sunday afternoon and evening may be (mostly) storm free. The heat and humidity will have air conditioners humming once again, and your favorite lake, beach or Dairy Queen will do a brisk business.
Enjoy a summer like weekend, but keep an eye out fro storms especially Saturday and Saturday night.