Forecast: Rain chances increase

It may feel like the Amazon jungle around here one more time today.

Pooling surface moisture and an approaching cool front may trigger scattered showers and tropical downpours again this afternoon and evening in the southeast half of Minnesota.

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(click for bigger image)

If the storms get going, some of the rainfall could be locally heavy.

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NAM 84 hour rainfall shows 1″ to 2″ rainfall “bull’s eye” right over Twin Cities metro.

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Rainfall may exceed 1″ in some areas. (click for bigger image)

Tropical dew point levels in the upper 60s and low 70s have been pooling down in Iowa. That moisture may get drawn north ahead of the front later today. Keep an eye out for developing showers and T-Storms anytime after 3pm and into tonight.

As the cool front sweeps through Thursday, a much drier air mass will bring an end to shower chances for a few days and usher in a much more comfortable less humid air mass. You can probably give the air conditioner a rest after today.

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Forecast models indicate dew points falling into the comfortable 50s later this week.

Brewing Bonnie?

Watchful eyes are on a developing tropical wave moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico today. NHC says there is a 40% chance that the wave may become Tropical Storm Bonnie before landfall near the Texas Mexico border Thursday.

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East Coast Heat Wave Day 2:

Many locations along the eastern seaboard will hit 100 again today. All six observing sites in the New York City area broke records Tuesday with Central Park sweltering at 103 degrees.

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We can be grateful for some of the best (and most comfortable) weather on the planet the next few days.

PH

  • Andy

    Hi Paul,

    Thanks for the updates. Have you heard about the 4th International Conference on Climate Change? There were some former astronauts there. What do people in the weather business think about their ideas?

  • Chris B. Critter

    I find it humorous (sort of) that everyone in town – NWS, media – are saying we’re going to get dumped upon with rainfall tonight, and HPC’s QPF shows virtually nothing for 00Z tonight through 00Z tomorrow. Their 12Z QPF from this morning showed about 1/4 inch of mean areal precipitation for us. I do realize that the HPC product is a mean-areal product, which means that the area should average out to be about 1/4 inch, but maybe I’m missing something here.

    I’m not saying who’s right or wrong, but the discrepancy is quite startling to me. Do you have any insight?

  • Paul Huttner

    Hi Chris:

    Not sure exactly what goes into HPC analysis (how much hand analysis and smoothing?) but I think a “mean areal” product doesn’t carry much weight in a localized convective situation like today.

    Nice band of slow moving “heavy rainers” setting up now along quasi-stationary frontal boundary in S & E metro. Looks like south and east metro will be the focus, and areas under that slow moving line will see heavy tropical downpours.

    PH