Rain and severe threat in southern Minnesota today

A parade of showers and embedded thunderstorms is marching across southern Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin today.

The Twin Cities metro area is on the northern edges of this weather system. We can expect rain from time to time, but there may be several “dry” (not raining but plenty humid) hours through Friday.

The system will generally come in two main waves. The first this morning has dumped heavy rain in southern Minnesota, including nearly 3 inches in Blue Earth and Fairmont.

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Doppler storm total rainfall shows multi-inch rainfall along and north of the I-90 corridor in Minnesota.

Rainfall reports on the ground confirm the doppler estimates. Here are some rainfall totals as of 6 AM this morning.

STATION MAX MIN 24-HR

: NAME TEMP TEMP PCPN

AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT : 83 / 69 / 0.00

EAU : EAU CLAIRE WI AIRPORT : 84 / 66 / 0.08

STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT : 86 / 69 / 0.00

MIC : CRYSTAL MN ARPT : 88 / 69 / 0.03

MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT : 88 / 68 / 0.23

STP : ST PAUL MN ARPT : 88 / 68 / 0.28

FCM : FLYING CLOUD MN ARPT : 88 / 69 / 0.25

RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT : 86 / 68 / 0.27

IN MINNESOTA

:

BTHM5 : BLUE EARTH : 90 / 60 / 2.61

CHKM5 : CHASKA 2 NW : 86 / 58 / 0.12

FIRM5 : FAIRMONT : 85 / 68 / 2.95

ZMPM5 : FARMINGTON CWSU : M / M / 0.62

FORM5 : FOREST LAKE 5 NE : 88 / 60 / 0.00

HSTM5 : HASTINGS LOCK/DAM 2 : 87 / 65 / 0.22

HDSM5 : HENDERSON 3 W : 83 / 62 / 0.70

KIMM5 : KIMBALL 3 N : 83 / 61 / 0.00

LFLM5 : LITTLE FALLS : M / M / 0.02

LNGM5 : LONG PRAIRIE : 81 / 58 / 0.00

MKAM5 : MANKATO : 85 / 61 / 1.61

LSAM5 : MINNEAPOLIS LOWER ST : M / M / 0.14

MVDM5 : MONTEVIDEO 1 SW : 83 / 60 / 0.11

MGNM5 : MORGAN : M / M / 0.72

RDWM5 : RED WING LOCK/DAM 3 : 88 / 65 / 0.27

REWM5 : REDWOOD FALLS : 86 / 59 / 0.17

RCEM5 : RICE : 84 / 60 / 0.03

SPEM5 : ST PETER : 87 / 61 / 1.06

SFDM5 : SPRINGFIELD 1 NW : M / M / 1.49

SWRM5 : STILLWATER WTP : M / M / 0.25

Thursday’s weather will play out in large part depending on where you live. In far southern Minnesota the chances for rain, heavy rain, and severe weather will be the greatest. There is a flash flood watch out through this evening basically south of the metro.

In the Twin Cities if we get some sun mixed in this afternoon that could spur scattered thunderstorms to redevelop, and bring tropical downpours to areas underneath the dew point rich storms.

The second wave of this system appears to be due in Friday night and could linger into parts of Saturday. The weather should improve dramatically later Saturday and into Sunday, which could be spectacular with bright sun, lower humidity and highs in the 80s.

Tropical Storm Bonnie?

NHC is betting on naming the season’s second storm today. A storng easterly wave near Cuba may become Tropical Storm Bonnie at any moment.

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Forecast models differ on the eventual intensity of Bonnie. Some models approach hurricane force within about 48 hours.

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The forecasts agree more on where Bonnie will head, and you guessed it…the track looks to be right into the heart of the oil spill zone.

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As we saw with Alex, even a tropical storm can wreak havoc on oil cleanup operations and drive more oil ashore through wind and wave action as well as with even minor storm surge.

Stay tuned as “Bonnie” moves into the Gulf the next 48 hours.

Outdoor baseball in Minnesota: Twins lucky weather winning streak?

I’m happy to report that the Minnesota Twins have been extremely lucky regarding the timing of rain and severe weather events so far this summer. It’s almost uncanny how the games at Target Filed have dodged rain and severe weather for the most part.

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You’ve heard of “weather rocks” and “weather ropes” which profess that “if it’s wet, it’s raining etc.” It seems like the Twins almost have their own version at Target Field. If it’s storming, the game is tomorrow. If there’s lightning, the game just ended, if it’s wet for days, the Twin are on a road trip!

I credit the good weather luck to my partner in weather crime Craig Edwards, who watches the skies for the Twins daily on game days. Let’s hope the weather winning streak keeps going this summer.

PH

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