Friday Forecast: Rain & thunder south

Update 12:00 am Friday

It looks more like the metro wil be on the northern fringe of the rain. The heaviest rainfall looks to be south of the metro, for Mankato. Waseca, Fairmont, Worthington, and Albert Lea. A few showers and a T-Storm may still rumbe in the metro through Friday morning.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

Welcome to another shot of rain Friday for southern Minnesota.

A soggy warm front is gurgling north, and triggering another round of showers and T-Storms, mainy in the southern third of the state. Locally heavy downpours appear to be the main flavor of this system, hopefully with less severe weather than the onslaught we’ve endured the past 6 weeks.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has NOT placed Minnesota under a risk for severe weather Friday.

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Some of the rainfall could be on the heavy side in southern Minnesota. Various models crank out anywhere 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with this system south and west of the metro. There could be some isolated heavier amounts in slow moving storms.

For the metro, it looks like the best money is on under .25″of rain for most areas through Friday morning. As is always the case, if storms slow down or “train” over the same area, rainfall amounts could be locally higher.

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NAM model 84 hour precip shows heavy rain potential over southern Minnesota.

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NOAA HPC 3- day rainfall forecast.

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing overnight and will move east and north Friday. It looks like most of the action will be on Friday morning, and a gradual trend toward drier skies will kick in Friday PM.

Saturday and Sunday look good, with one exception. The next wave may push showers and a few T-Storms into western Minnesota Sunday and into the east by as early as Sunday night.

All in all, the trend appears to favor fewer bouts of severe weather over the next week or so. If that verifies, it would be a welcome break for storm weary Minnesotans, and a few meteorologists I know!

PH

  • Josh

    Hi Paul,

    Is there any reason why so many of these systems set up south of the metro? It seems like a lot of the heaviest snows the past couple of winters were in southern MN and northern IA.

    -jlk