SPC: Moderate risk for severe weather today

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Minnesota under a moderate risk for severe storms today.

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The moderate risk area includes most of southern and central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area.

The primary threats from storms today will be damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail, but there is also a threat for tornadoes.

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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point

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Probability of hail 1″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.

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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

According to today’s SPC discussion:

“ASIDE FROM LARGE…DAMAGING HAIL…TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS…ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.”

Translation…we could see a possible EF2 or stronger tornado in Minnesota today.

EF SCALE

EF Rating 3 Second Gust (mph)

0 65-85

1 86-110

2 111-135

3 136-165

4 166-200

5 Over 200

Storms are ongoing in much of northwest Minnesota today, As the day progresses, look for storms to increase in coverage in western Minnesota. A few storms may develop in the early afternoon, but it looks like the main threat will be for a line of severe storms to develop in western Minnesota early this afternoon and move east into eastern Minnesota this evening.

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Unless a few renegade storms pop up near the Twin Cities earlier this afternoon, it appears the most likely window for storms and potential severe weather in the highly populated Twin Cities area will be between 4pm and 9pm tonight.

Have the weather radio tuned up and keep an eye out for severe storms today. Here are a few key resources to track potential sever weather today.

-Twin Cities radar-Grand Forks radar-Duluth radar

-Twin Cities NWS

-Storm Prediction Center

PH

  • Chris B. Critter

    Since that outlook was issued, SPC extended the moderate risk into west-central Minnesota on the 1630 UTC update.

    About a half-hour ago I went outside here in the Twin Cities and noticed a decent number of altocumulus clouds with decent vertical development on them.

    It’s hard to focus on work today, darn it.

    And, if it means anything after my “open mouth swallow foot” comment yesterday, I will be listening to MPR on my way home this evening to catch the latest weather headlines.