Weather Smorgasbord

Frost, fire, wind, rain and hail. Only in Minnesota. Take your pick, you’ll likely find it somewhere in the Gopher State over the next 48 hours.

What may appear as weather insanity qualifies as job security for meteorologists.

Let’s start with frost. Early morning temperatures today dipped below freezing in much of northern Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. As the center of cool high pressure pulls away, temperatures recover nicely this afternoon.

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Morning temperatures show a cool pool of air near the head of the Great Lakes.

Fire Weather:

Meteorologists call the combination of low relative humidity (under 25%) warm temperatures and high winds “fire weather.” With those elements in place today, Red Flag Warnings have been issued for eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

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Rain, wind & hail?

It looks like the potential for meaningful rainfall is increasing for late Thursday night into Friday. Forecast models are hinting at anywhere form .50″ to 1.3″ of rain close to the Twin Cities by late Friday. Often the models can be a bit optimistic, but the chances for getting a much needed half inch of rain are increasing.

The main event may hold off until Friday, but there is a chance for a lead wave to touch off a stray passing thunderstorm as early as Thursday morning with the passage of a warm front. Look for a windy, warmer and more humid day Thursday as we enter the “warm sector.”

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84 hour NAM model precip shows a potential band of 1″ rainfall close to the metro.

Severe risk?

There may be enough instability to produce a few strong to marginally severe storms as the front passes Thursday night or Friday. The main threat appears to be gusty winds and or large hail.

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SPC outlook predicts slight risk for severe storms into Friday.

Twitter storm reports:

You can get into the storm reporting action this year via a new experimental NWS program for Twitter storm reports. Get the details here.

Enjoy our nearly perfect spring weather today!

PH

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