The timing could be better, but the rain is a blessing this weekend.
A big sloppy low pressure system is tracking south of Minnesota this weekend. This first spring like rain storm of the season is pulling up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and wringing out showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest.
NOAA surface forecast loop tracks low pressure system from Kansas City to Chicago this weekend.
Gulf moistue priming system:
This is the first time this spring we’ve seen a system like this track through the Midwest with an open flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The surface flow ahead of the system is pulling up substantial moisture in the form of higher dew points in the 60s and even 70s and feeding it into the storm.
The higher dew points may help wring out more substantial rainfall totals for (especially southern) Minnesota.
Models (and NWS forecast) cranking out significant rainfall for the Twin Cities this weekend.
(click for bigger image)
Some multi inch rainfall totals may soak Illinois this weekend.
Severe threat south:
It appears the threat for any severe weather will stay south of Minnesota this weekend. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is tracking severe weather watches and risk areas in the central plains.
Expect occasional rain showers from Friday evening through Saturday tapering off Sunday. Yes, it’s the weekend, but I know the Weather Lab trees and hostas will welcome the rainfall any day of the week!