January 2010: 4th warmest January on record globally

NOAA Janaury 2010 global temperature analysis shows cooler than average temps in much of the eastern U.S. and Europe with much warmer than average weather over Canada, Asia and Africa.

They say all weather is local.

That's why it's hard for people to absorb global weather. Nobody experinces the "global mean temperature."

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But NOAA, NASA and other organizations do keep track. And this year NOAA is reporting that combined land and ocean temperatures in January 2010 were the 4th warmest on record since 1880. The combined ocean and land global temperature was 38.08 degrees last month. That's +1.08 degrees Fahrenheit.

NOAA partially attributes the warming to the current El Nino in the Pacific. The warm month globally continues the trend of 2009, which was the 5th warmest year on record globally.

•2009 Global land and ocean annual surface temperatures tied with 2006 as the fifth warmest year on record, at 0.56°C (1.01°F) above the 20th century average.

•The 2000-2009 decade is the warmest on record, with an average global surface temperature of 0.54°C (0.96°F) above the 20th century average. This shattered the 1990s value of 0.36°C (0.65°F).

So 2010 is off to another top 5 start, as we still wait for a below average year globally. There has not been one cooler than average year globally in a quarter of a century, since 1984.

Globally 9 of the past 10 years are in the top 10 warmest years on record. In fact, the past 9 years in a row are among the top 10 warmest years on record since 1880. This is remarkable and statistically highly unlikely in a system that is showing only natural variability.

Global Top 10

Warm Years (Jan-Dec) Anomaly °C Anomaly °F

2005 0.61 1.10

1998 0.60 1.08

2003 0.58 1.04

2002 0.57 1.03

2009 0.56 1.01

2006 0.56 1.01

2007 0.55 0.99

2004 0.54 0.97

2001 0.52 0.94

2008 0.48 0.86

It will be interesting to see if 2010 continues to be yet another "top 5 warmest year" as we move through the coming months.

NOAA Modifies Hurricane Scale:

The Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is getting a makeover.

Starting this year NOAA will remove storm surge as a component of the scale. Experience has shown that local storm surges vary based on local near shore depth near hurricane landfall. Surge is also affected by storm intensity, size, forward speed, and barometric pressure.

Recent hurricanes have shown that storm surge damage does not always correlate with hurricane intensity as described by the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

In 2008 category 2 Hurricane Ike devastated the Texas coast with a 15-20 foot storm surge. That's a contrast to Hurricane Charley in 2004, which battered Sanibel Island and Fort Meyers, Florida with Category 4 winds, but produced a storm surge of only 6-7 feet.

NHC will still include storm surge in hurricane advisories, but surges will be give in local height above ground, and not tied specifically to a given Saffir-Simpson wind category.

Enjoy one more day of bright sunshine before a few more clouds and some occasional snow flurries visit Minnesota this weekend.

PH