Forecast: Warmer pattern ahead?
We're due for some warmer weather, and it looks like we may get a break in about 10 days.
Early signs point to a milder, lamb-like start to March this year. It appears our predominantly northwest upper level flow will give way to more southerly winds as we move into March.
If today's medium range forecast maps are correct, temperatures could push 40 degrees in much of southern Minnesota by March 1st. If we can crack 40, it would be the first time in 3 months, since December 1st when the metro basked in 47 degree warmth.
In the short term, our sunny and mild weather will linger this week. Look for highs in the lower 30s today and Thursday in eastern Minnesota with 20s west.
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Temperatures will trend slightly downward this weekend, and next week does look 5 to 10 degrees cooler (highs around 20-25, lows near 10?) before we begin the warm up by the following weekend.
Then get set for what could be a few days with near 40 as we open March. Of course, March is our second snowiest month, so we know even though we melt a lot of snow in March, we'll likely still get plastered with an infamous "state tournament snowstorm" next month.
Higher sun plays a role:
You can feel the warmth of the sun these days in the midday sky. It's undeniable now. At 34 degrees above the noon horizon, the sun is a full 9 degrees higher in the sky that it was in late December. We'll gain another 11 degrees of elevation to 45 degrees by March 20th.
The higher sun angle and increasing daylight means we're getting more than double the solar energy from the sun compared to late December. The sun is just too high in the sky now for us to stay cold forever. That's one reason we're seeing afternoon temperatures surge into the low 30s these days. It's also why the sun is able to reach into previously shady nooks and crannies to melt snow on roads and sidewalks.
We've also gained about two hours of daylight since late December. We're gaining a full 3 minutes of daylight each day, that's about 21 minutes a week.
Enjoy the brighter days and milder afternoons, and I'll be keeping an eye on the maps to see if our 1st 40 degree reading in 3 months stays on track for around March 1st.
PH