January Thaw likely next week

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Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook highlights chances for abobe average temperatures in the Upper Midwest next week.

The weather tables are about to turn.

As one more shot of bitterly cold arctic air surges south from Canada, changes are afoot in the forecast for next week. The January Thaw appears to be headed for Minnesota and much of the nation.

Bitter cold and dangerous wind chills will hang tough into Saturday.

Starting on Sunday you’ll notice as westerly winds begin to push milder air into Minnesota. If the models pan out, we could be looking at a string of days above freezing in much of Minnesota. We may even see a few eager thermometers pushing 40 degrees in southwest Minnesota Tuesday.

The polar front jet stream looks like it will finally lift north into southern Canada. A second branch of the jet, a sub-tropical jet stream, may get going in the southern United States. This “split-flow” pattern is more typical of El Nino winters in the USA.

Here is the GFS MOS guidance for next week. X/N = maximum and minimum daily forecast temperatures.

KMSP GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/07/2010 1200 UTC

FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192

FRI 08| SAT 09| SUN 10| MON 11| TUE 12| WED 13| THU 14|FRI CLIMO

N/X -5 4|-12 10| 1 21| 12 24| 12 32| 20 34| 19 33| 20 4 22

Here’s the full guidance and the key.

Here are the bulletins for other Minnesota cities.

Let’s hope the models pan out so we can clear some of the ice from the roads.

PH

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