Storm Update: Rain/snow line in east metro

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GOES water vapor image shows tremendous extent of storm. Comma shaped feature in Texas is the main storm center.

The strongest part of the storm is yet to come! There are some interesting developments in the as we head into tonight.

-The rain/snow line has worked into the east metro. Warm air in the lowest mile of the atmosphere is changing precip to rain and freezing rain from the eastern metro south and east.

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-The most powerful upper low (the main body) of the storm is still way down in Texas late this afternoon. It will surge northward tonight. As it does, it will generate a new wave of heavy snow.

-Expect snow intensities to increase dramatically between about 6pm and 9pm tonight. Snowfall rates of 1 inch or more per hour are possible overnight in many areas. The heavy snow may last through about 6pm Christmas Day, and then begin to taper off in the metro.

-As the low approaches. Winds will pick up dramatically by morning. Expect heavy snow and wind gusts from 20 to 40 mph. Winds may gusts to 50 mph along the North Shore tomorrow. This will create near blizzard conditions.

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I expect and additional 10" of snow in the west metro by Saturday. The next wave will come with higher snow intensities and more wind late tonight and Christmas Day.

I am sticking with a range of 12" to 18" for the metro for storm total snowfall at this point. If the west metro remains all snow, there could be some totals over 20". I still think the mixed precip will reduce overall amounts in the east metro, but at least a foot is likely.

The warm air will have to be watched. There are some suggestions it may still work further west. If it does, even the west metro may change to sleet or freezing rain.

I still think the heaviest band of snow will run from near Redwood Falls to Willmar, St. Cloud, and Brainerd then up to Duluth and the North Shore. These areas could see 15" to 20" with some isolated 25" to 30" totals possible.

The first wave will merge or "phase" with the stronger wave coming north from Texas by tomorrow. Phasing systems can strengthen rapidly. This will likely happen overnight and Christmas Day.

Stay tuned to updates and forecast changes. What we've seen so far is just the appetizer. The worst of this storm is yet to come.

-College of Du Page IR satellite loop

-MN hourly observations

-Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion

-Twin Cities Radar loop

-Duluth NWS

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