Forecast: Sunday snow?

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NOAA Storm Prediction Center SREF model ensembles hinting at snow developing by lunchtime Sunday in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

These are interesting days to be a weather forecaster.

Cold air has finally invaded the Upper Midwest. Now we watch for any little, or not so little, weather disturbance that can produce snow. We may have one for Sunday.

One of our main models, the GFS, is hinting at a scenario that could deliver snow late Sunday into Monday for much of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Other models like the European and Canadian models are less impressed, and lean toward only a dusting of snow at best.

If the GFS wins the day, snow could bust out Sunday afternoon and expand in coverage over Minnesota Sunday night into Monday morning. The heaviest totals could be in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, but the Twin Cities could get smacked with a significant snowfall. That could gum up the Monday morning rush hour pretty good.

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GFS 500 millibar chart shows a "dip" in the upper winds upstream Sunday. This would produce snow for Minnesota.

It's too early and there is too much model variation to say this system is a go. The other models could win the day and this system might be weaker and slide further south. That would lead to a scenario of a dusting of light snow before the next cold air surge early next week.

We should hopefully have a little more clarity on which way things trend later tonight or by Friday's model runs.

I don't know if I've ever talked about this, but one of my favorite parts of being a meteorologist is looking at the "next" model run. How does it differ from the last run? Which models suggest a different solution? What solution might evolve that the models don't see yet?

I've been lucky to work with and learn from so many great forecasters during my career. People often ask me; what makes a great weather forecaster? It really boils down to judgment skills. You look at a hundred variables, decide which 10 apply to the forecast, and then pick the one or two that will ultimately carry the day. Pattern recognition skills are a huge plus. If you can visualize how things fit together and you understand the science, you can be a great weather forecaster.

It's interesting that the level of meteorological education is not necessarily proportional to forecast success. I've worked with people who have doctorates and masters degree who are not very good forecasters. I've also worked with people with no degree who were trained in the Air Force who are some of the best synoptic forecasters I've ever seen.

Somebody who I respect once told me that being a great forecaster is 25% meteorological theory, 25% judgment skills and 50% having seen it before (pattern recognition). That pretty much sums it up I think.

It will be fun to watch how the models resolve the potential for snow Sunday night. As they say in the weather business....stay tuned.

PH