NOAA CPC 6-10 day outlook hints at above average temperatures for parts of Minnesota.
Below average temperatures so far this month buck the trend of above average Decembers during moderate El Nino years in Minnesota. So far this month temperatures are running about 4 degrees cooler than average in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota. If we finish the month below average, it will be the first time that has occurred in the metro in a moderate (Tropical Pacific SST’s +1.2 to +1.8 degrees) El Nino year since 1950.
Including this morning’s snowfall, we’ve recorded 9.6″ of snow this month at Twin Cities Airport. That approaches the average monthly total for December which is 10 inches. It appears likely we may exceed that total with half the month left to go.
For the season we’ve recorded 12.4″ so far. Average to date is 14.5″. So we’re running -2.1″ season to date.
Cold air returns this week:
A fresh blast of arctic air is blowing in on the heels of Monday’s fresh blanket of 1″ to 3″ of snow. Look for temperatures to drop to about -6 tonight in the Twin Cities and as cold as -15 to -25 in northern Minnesota. Wind chills will plunge to -10 to -20 in the south and may reach -30 in northern Minnesota tonight.
The cold will ease quickly Wednesday as southerly winds return. look for highs to return to near average levels in the mid 20’s in southern Minnesota by mid-week.
Milder pattern to close December?
There are signs that the jet stream may lift north into Canada later this month. That should allow temperatures to moderate, and limit cold arctic air incursions into Minnesota. The magnitude of the change is still unclear at this point, but trends point to a milder last 10 days of December.