Minnesota 2009: Cool State in a warm world

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NOAA National Climatic Data Center analysis of global temperatures in 2009 shows Minnesota is one of the few cooler than average locations this year.

The say all weather is local.

That's been particularly true this year for the Upper Midwest. With our record warm November not yet in the books, Minnesota's annual average temperature is running slightly cooler than average so far in 2009 through October. As you can see from the NCDC analysis map, we are one of the few locations worldwide that is running cooler than average.

Globally, this is shaping up to go down as the 5th warmest year on record. For the year to date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 14.7 °C (58.4 °F) tied with 2007 as the 5th warmest January-through-October period on record. This value is 0.56°C (1.01°F) above the 20th century average.

This marks yet another "top 10" warmest year on record globally, and another missed opportunity for a long overdue cooler than average year. In fact, there has not been one year globally cooler than average since 1984. That makes 25 years in a row above average globally. It is remarkable and significant that globally the 10 warmest years on record have also occurred since 1997.

The odds against that happening as part of "natural variability" approach 1 in 10,000. Though some take issue with the comparison, that's roughly the odds of flipping a coin and having it come up heads 14 times in a row. Regardless of how you want to express the statistical probability In the law of averages, we are way, way overdue for a globally cooler than average year. It won't happen again this year.

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The fact that Minnesota and the Upper Midwest is bucking the trend of global warmth this year illustrates that all weather is truly local. You can't judge global temperatures by looking at one location, or even one year. It's when years add up to decades, and become so statistically unlikely as to fit with any sort of natural variability that remarkable trends emerge.

I am looking forward to see what the next 5 to 10 years bring with regard to global temperatures. I am also still waiting for a long overdue cooler than average year globally. Will we see another "top 10" warmest year in 2010? Will the next 5-10 years all come in warmer than the 20th century average? That would be unexpected statistically, and remarkable if it occurs.

I am away until Monday for the Thanksgiving holiday. I hope you and your family have the brightest and best Thanksgiving this year. One thing I am grateful for is to have curious, intelligent and kind listeners like all of you who enjoy MPR. It's a great place to work, and I look forward to chatting again with you all on Monday.

Happy Thanksgiving!

PH