Mild November: Open water in December?

[image]

Ice free shoreline soaking up November sun on St. Louis Bay in Lake Minnetonka. (Photos by Paul Huttner)

Things are beginning to look a little odd in Minnesota these days.

This is the week when we would expect to see snow cover blanketing the ground in the Twin Cities. Our average date for the first inch of snow cover is November 21st. That's Saturday folks. No sign that will happen this year. In fact we could be pushing 50 again this weekend.

Create a More Connected Minnesota

MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

While springtime "ice-out" data is abundant in Minnesota, ice "freeze-up" data is sparse and hard to come by for Minnesota lakes. Maybe we're all a bit in denial when our favorite lake freezes over.

Still I can remember many years when I was skating (foolishly perhaps) on smaller bays in Lake Minnetonka by Thanksgiving weekend. I would say it is quite common to start seeing the first ice forming on ponds and small lakes and bays by this week. And I've seen many years with Lake Minnetonka covered with ice by the first week of December.

[image]

Late season boater out for a mid-November ride on Lake Minnetonka.

So far this year there is not a hint of ice on any area lakes or ponds. In fact, I believe all lakes in Minnesota are ice free as of today. And if you look at the GOES 1km visible satellite image below you can see it appears that lakes are ice free well north into Ontario.

[image]

College of DuPage visible satellite image form today shows lakes in northern Minnesota and southern Ontario largely ice-free on November 17th.

The medium-range forecast maps do show a cooling trend in the next two weeks. This should bring down enough cold air to freeze up some ponds and small bays by around the first of December. Still, there are indications of periodic warm spells. That might keep the big water open for several weeks to come. That would mean open water is possible on large Minnesota lakes well into December. There is evidence that supports a climate shift induced trend toward later ice-in and earlier ice-out sates in Minnesota.

It's said there really is no bad weather, just different kinds of good weather. Most of us are enjoying our balmy November. The ice fishing crowd? Not so much.

PH