Friday Forecast: Out on a weather limb

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Twin Cities NWS graphical forecast Thursday at 11pm says 57 for a high on Friday.

Call me crazy. Call me a weather optimist. Best case scenario bias on this one. Maybe I just want a small hint of summer back. I'm out on the proverbial weather limb, and I hope it doesn't get sawed off. I may have to scrape the weather egg off my face Friday afternoon.

I think the forecast models have underestimated (possibly grossly underestimated) the magnitude of the warm air about to spill into the Twin Cities this weekend.

All week long the models have been suggesting high temperatures of about 55 to 57 degrees for Friday. These numbers were based on assuming a low deck of stratus clouds persisting all day Friday. We've had a few clouds overnight, but it's been up around 5,500 feet and there may be enough wind to mix that layer out into drier air and give us more sunshine Friday.

The local forecasts from various media and NWS as of 11pm Thursday night range from 57 to 62 on Friday.

This is probably a great range. But there is also another scenario in which the models have underestimated the warming as they sometimes do in late season, and overestimated the amount of cloud cover in a dry air mass. One result could be more sun and a higher temperature than any of those numbers by Friday afternoon as the thermal ridge moves overhead. The upstream air mass under the thermal ridge in central Nebraska Thursday was well into the 70s, but that was with some help from downslope warming. We won't get that help in Minnesota.

So here's my fun little forecast for Friday's max temp if the "high end" scenario plays out.

Twin Cities max temp for Friday: At least 65 degrees, with 70 very close by in southwest Minnesota, and not out of the question in the southwest metro. Late day surge of mild air wins the day in southern Minnesota.

Let's see how well the models handled Friday with Tom Crann on ATC Friday PM.

Enjoy!

PH