Forecast: Warm front
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European forecast model shows a very warm bubble of air for November at 5,000 feet surging into the Upper Midwest Friday.
This is going to be an interesting forecast.
A major league warm front is building in the high plains and will be pushing northeast into Minnesota by Friday. The big forecast question? Just how warm will it get?
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As usual there are at least two competing model solutions to that question. One model, the NAM is more aggressive in surging the warm air into Minnesota by Friday. The NAM numbers suggest southwest Minnesota could see temperatures surge well into the 60s and even close to 70 degrees Friday afternoon. The 60s could linger into Saturday if you bet on the NAM.
The GFS is a little more conservative. GFS numbers suggest mid to upper 50s for southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, both Friday and Saturday. This would still be a good 10 to 15 degrees above average for early November. Our average high in the metro Saturday is 45 degrees.
The air mass poised to move this way is already plenty warm. High temperatures yesterday were well into the 60s to near 70 degrees in the lee of the Rockies.
A wild card with warm fronts any time of year can be cloud cover ahead of the front. If clouds develop Friday as the front pushes through, it may keep temperatures in check a bit. If we see full sun, even the lower November sun angle should be able to boost temps into the low 60s in southwest Minnesota Friday and Saturday.
Either way it's going to warm up around these parts in the next few days. It looks to stay mild and dry through the weekend. So the question really is; will temperatures be 10 or 20 degrees above average?
Now that's a nice forecast problem to have for early November!
Looking further ahead, it appears temperatures could stay mostly above average through November 14th.
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Then the models hint at a big windy wet storm system moving in from the southwest. Too early to tell if it would be rain or snow yet, but mid-November is a pretty good time to get a wrapped up "panhandle hook" type storm moving into the Upper Midwest.
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GFS forecast model hints at a strong storm approaching on about November 14th.
Stay tuned, and enjoy our Indian Summer as it unfolds this weekend.
PH