Forecast: Rain moving in
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NWS Sioux Falls doppler shows rain shield moving east Monday morning. Rain should reach the metro this afternoon and evening.
Here we go again.
Our cool wet fall weather pattern that snapped into place is about to get cooler and wetter. Another major rain system is moving into Minnesota today. Moderate to heavy rain is falling this morning in South Dakota. The rain shield will move east and overspread much of Minnesota including the metro by late afternoon and evening.
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It looks like the heaviest rain will fall tonight into Tuesday morning. This is a potent system with plenty of moisture to work with. The Upper Midwest water vapor loop shows the system wrapped up and spinning toward Minnesota from the northern Rockies.
The forecast models are cranking out between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall by late Tuesday for much of southern Minnesota. There is the possibility of multi inch rainfall again over the same areas that saw heavy rain last week.
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NOAA rainfall forecast shows a 1" to 2" rainfall "bulls-eye" over the Twin Cities metro.
Snow is falling on the colder side of the system at higher elevations in the Black Hills.
As the system pulls out we should see a bright and sunny but breezy day Wednesday. Temperatures should approach 60 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
The "other shoe" this week comes in the form of a cold front which will barrel through by Friday. This early fall polar outbreak will bring the season's coldest shot of air so far. Highs may not climb out of the 40s this weekend for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota, with 30s in the north. Lows will likely be in the 20s north and 30s south. There could be accumulating snow late this week in Grand Forks and Fargo, and the season's first snow flurries could fly in the metro by this weekend.
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If there's any good news in the weather scenario this week it comes in the form of drought busting rains. I expect the U.S. Drought Monitor will remove parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin from drought this week.
Hang in there if you still have hope for Indian Summer. These weather patterns have a way of shifting every few weeks, and that still might mean a late season warm spell in late October or early November.
PH