Forecast: Rain and thunder

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WRF model cranks out an inch of rain Thursday centered on the east metro.

October’s final salvo may break the record books.

Another in a series of storms this month is bringing rain and thunder to much of Minnesota. Waves of rain are moving north from Iowa today, and the rain will be moderate to heavy at times. Imbedded thunderstorms will also rumble through the area. Expect the heaviest waves or rain and thunder to move through during the afternoon and early evening hours as the storm peaks.

Forecast models are cranking out over an inch of rain (NAM = 1.12″) with this potent weather system. So far this month 4.82″ of precipitation has been recorded in the Twin Cities. Another inch of rain would rank as the second wettest October on record since pioneer records began in the Twin Cities in 1871.

Wettest Octobers on Record (updated by Twin Cities NWS today)

Minneapolis

Rank Value Date

1. 6.42 1911

2. 5.68 1971

3. 5.64 1934

4. 5.62 1968

5. 5.52 1941

6. 5.51 1898

7. 5.48 1984

8. 5.45 2005

9. 4.97 1970

10. 4.94 1904

11. 4.82 2009

On the cold side of the storm heavy snow is blanketing western South Dakota and west central North Dakota. Incredible snow totals of over 3 feet have fallen in the mountains just west of Denver with this storm. Winter storm warnings and other winter weather advisories are posted for parts of 13 states with this potent storm. The storm’s impacts are being felt from California and Arizona all the way to North Dakota.

Surface reports indicate snow from near Denver all the way into North Dakota.

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CDOT traffic cam shows deep snow on I-70 west of Denver.

Expect another wet and potentially slow commute in the Twin Cities and around Minnesota this afternoon as the storm reaches peak intensity.

Stay dry today!

PH

  • Josh

    Hi Paul, Craig and Mark -

    Thanks so much for such a great blog!

    I’m interested in any insight into the grouping of these dates. For instance, 1898-1911 or 1968-1984. 2005-201?

    Also, it seems like there are few wet Octobers in a row, and then roughly a 25 year gap before we get another group.

    I may be way off here – I’m not a scientist, just an interested weather fanatic!

    -jlk

  • Ottar

    Hi Paul,

    Has the wet October helped with the overall drought conditions? As previously noted, a dry summer followed by a wet October is seemingly more common over the last few years.