Winter Forecast: Mild or wild?
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Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures show warming water as El Nino strengthens.
Welcome to September.
It may seem a bit early for winter predictions just yet, but the Farmer's Almanac is going out on a big limb this winter. The forecast calls for a bitterly cold winter in the Nation's midsection between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains.
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This is at odds with the official forecast from NOAA's CPC. A strengthening El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is leading NOAA to forecast higher chances for a milder than average winter in the Upper Midwest.
There is statistical evidence that NOAA may be on the right track here. In the 17 El Nino events since 1958, the Upper Midwest has experienced a mild winter about 70% of the time. During these years temperatures often average out 1 to 2.5 degrees above average in Minnesota.
The Farmer's Almanac offers some anecdotal claims of accuracy, but does not give any statistical accuracy numbers.
My money is on NOAA this winter. It is pretty tough to have a colder than average winter in Minnesota during an El Nino year. There will likely still be cold snaps, wicked arctic outbreaks and sub zero wind chill babble this winter. There may also be extended mild spells above freezing, and it may be tougher to hold a consistent snow cover this winter.
Could we see bare ground in January?
Stay tuned.
PH