There’s an old saying in the weather business. “Don’t forecast rain in a drought.” My colleague Craig Edwards and I talk about that a lot these days.
That wisdom appears to be sound again this morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms is splitting into two parts as it approaches the Twin Cities. One piece of energy is moving north, and another south.
The forecast models hinted at this trend yesterday. Two separate low pressure systems are tracking though the area today. One will move into northern Minnesota, the other is sliding southward into Iowa. The best moisture today is also in southern Minnesota and into Iowa. The result is only spotty shower for the rain parched metro so far today. There is still a chance rain could redevelop this afternoon.
The Twin Cities NWS still has yet to issue any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings for the Twin Cities metro area this year. That’s a record, and marks the latest into any year we have gone without warning in the metro.
The new U.S. Drought Monitor this morning expands the drought area north and west through Minnesota. We are now getting reports that it’s very dry near Duluth and in other parts of the North Shore.
There’s an old saying in Arizona where I spent 9 years as a weather forecaster. “You’re as welcome as rain.” That’s a compliment in a desert. That saying may be true in much of Minnesota these days.