Forecast game: Father’s Day heat wave?

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NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) model hints at a strong Bemuda High in the eastern United States just after Father's Day. This kind of pattern can bring heat waves to the Upper Midwest.

This may fall under the category of wishful thinking.

There's a little game I like to play with the medium range forecast models. I try to identify major pattern changes two weeks in advance. Now, any forecaster worth his or her salt will tell you, this is a dangerous and sometimes foolish game for a weather forecaster.

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So let's not call this a forecast really, or even an outlook. Let's just have some fun and see how well the GFS and other models can do in the next two weeks.

Medium range (6-14 day) forecast models can be quite useful in identifying big broad forecast trends such as a major warm up or cool down. They are much less effective, often useless, at forecasting day to day precipitation after about 5-7 days.

Weather forecast models have improved considerably over the past 20 years. During that time forecast accuracy has improved about 1.5 days. That means in general today's 5 day forecast is about as accurate as the 3.5 day forecast was 20 years ago.

The image above is today's 500 millibar (18,000 feet) forecast for 7pm Monday June 22nd. (00UTC June 23rd=7pm June 22nd in Minnesota) That's two weeks from today. The big oblong solid line with the number "588" attached indicates a ridge of high pressure stretching from near Bermuda in the Atlantic Ocean all the way back toward Minnesota. This is called the Bermuda High. The pattern is common in summer and is something we would look for to bring summer heat and humidity to much of the United States.

If this map is close to correct (verifies) two weeks out, we would expect 90's and perhaps even 100 degree readings in parts of the Upper Midwest. It would also likely bring humidity with dew points in the 60's and 70's.

So here's the game. Do you think the computer model will?

A: Verify, bringing heat and humidity starting on about Father's Day?

B: Not verify, and temperatures will be much cooler.

Also, what do you think the high temperature will be at Twin Cities Airport on Monday June 22nd? Venture a guess, and I'll send a nifty weather prize to the winner. In case of a tie, the first one to pick the correct high on June 22nd is the winner. If the response is strong enough, I will find a way to come up with addditional prizes for 2nd and 3rd place.

I will post the updated model forecast for June 22nd periodically during the next two weeks.

The average high for June 22nd is 81 degrees. The record is 98 degrees set in 1911.

Here's my guess, and it is just a guess two weeks in advance.

Huttner:

A: The pattern verifies. High temp at MSP June 22nd 95 degrees.

Good luck!

PH

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