March lion roars
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SREF model ensembles paint heavy snow over northern Minnesota Tuesday.
You knew it couldn't last.
After a really nice mild stretch with consecutive 5 days of above average temperatures in March, the other shoe is about to drop.
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A major winter storm is winding up and heading north. This classic March snow storm will bring a variety of weather to the Upper Midwest including rain, thunder, heavy snow, and high winds with blizzard conditions in much of western Minnesota.
Some of the interesting features of this system include the strong upper dynamics which will create violent upward motion in the clouds. This could mean lightning and thundersnow for much of central Minnesota including the metro tomorrow afternoon.
Another interesting factor is the rain snow line setting up near the metro early in the storm. This could mean a mix of precip, with some areas starting as rain. As always with these systems, rainfall will reduce snow amounts accordingly. Snowfall with this system could literally range from just a trace in far southeast Minnesota, to as much as 12" to 16" in some areas of central and northern Minnesota.
Here in the metro my early estimate would be for anywhere from 3" far southeast to as much as 8" far northwest. I may modify and hone this a bit as we see the new forecast model runs tonight and see the storm start to take shape early Tuesday. A shift of 50 miles in the storm track can mean the difference between 2" and nearly a foot.
The bottom line is; be ready for a storm Tuesday.
After all, it is state tourney time at the X!
PH