Details still enfolding
While I have been focusing on the Red River hydrographs from the North Central River Forecast Center for Fargo and Grand Forks tracing the river stage and forecast stage, I need to mention that the actual worded forecast was for a crest between 39 feet and 41 feet in Fargo. It now appears that the NWS strongly believes the river will reach at least 40 feet by late Friday in Fargo. The additonal moisture locked in snow and ice, melting a little on Saturday, may add to the crest level.
Overland flooding is occurring which is hard to incorporate into the model. This is water flowing straight into the river from the landscape, not making its way to the Red through the channel of the gaged tributaries.
I went back to a blog I wrote on January 26, two months ago and found this statement from the National Weather Service about the Red River....Currently, the National Weather Service is projecting a ninety percent probability that the Red River of the North will reach major flood stage of thirty feet in Fargo. This is a very early outlook. The forecast verification is highly determined by spring snow melt, additional late winter snowfall adding to the water content and spring rainfall.
Listen for more inside information on this flood forecast on the jet streaming podcast we did yesterday with Mark Ewens from the NWS Grand Forks Office.
CE
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