Happy New Weather Year

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ENSO neutral conditions rule the tropical Pacific

A few things I will be watching as we move into 2009.

1) Will 2009 be another top 10 warmest year globally?

2008 was the 10th warmest year on record. The 10 warmest years globally on record have all occurred in the past 12 years.

There was some chatter among climate change skeptics that "the earth was cooling in 2008." Fact is that if 2008 had occurred before 1997, it would have been the hottest year on record, nearly .75 degrees above the 20th Century mean. That's not exactly what you would call a cooling trend.

2) Where will our annual snowfall for the metro and much of the Upper Midwest end up?

After a snowy December we've seen 21.7" of snow at MSP airport so far this season. That's actually less than an inch above average to date.

La Crosse and Duluth already have over 30" this season, and the pattern for now puts them in the continued "snow favored" areas.

My guess is that at this point we may end up pretty close to our annual average of 55.9" here in the metro.

3) Will we see any warming of tropical Pacific SST's late in the year?

The ENSO index is parked at zero. Weak La Nina conditions have persisted the past several months. There is some indication we could see some warming late in the year. If not, look for another active Atlantic hurricane season.

4) What will the biggest weather story of 2009 be?

We had the second most active tornado year on record in 2008 with 1,600 tornadoes in the US. Cyclone Nargis killed around 100,000 in Myanmar. What will the big weather surprise be in 2009? Who knows? But one thing to keep an eye out for is a big volcanic eruption. We haven't seen a climate changer since Pinatubo in the early 90's. If we get a big eruption, it can be a game changer for our warming trend.

Have a great 2009, and enjoy whatever weather comes your way!

PH