Remarkable system

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Crash scene at Highway 52 and 494 in the southeast metro typifies another snowy commute.

It's getting a little old for metro commuters. Another rush hour with snow-slicked freeways is here. 2008 is going out with a flurry of snow systems here in Minnesota.

This latest system is remarkable in many ways.

1) It's been a prolific snow producer for much of central Minnesota into Wisconsin.

-Rush City has piled up 14.5" of new snow.

-Little Falls measures 14" of powder.

-Cambridge is shoveling 9.5" tonight.

-Hillman in Morrison County takes the cake with 15.7"!

Snowfall totals

2) This system had a sharp cutoff on the southern edge of the snowfall for most of the event. That's why we're seeing a big "snowfall gradient" over very short distances from north to south.

3) The sharp cutoff made for a high degree of forecast difficulty with this storm. The southern edge of lift or "upglide" that produces the right environment for producing snow was right over the metro last night and early today. That made it a tough call for us to pinpoint snow amounts in the metro. That's why we give a range. The state of the science often will not allow us to forecast snow amounts to the inch. If this system had tracked another 50 miles south, we'd be buried here in the metro.

I'll give us a "B" grade on forecasting this system. On the good side we locked onto the system well, there was no surprise it was going to snow. We also hit the highest amounts north of the metro. And the 2" to 4" forecast we put out for the metro, with 3" to 6"+ north of the metro was not bad. A little lower on the south side (Eden Prairie 1.6", Airport around an inch) and a bit higher on the north side. (Andover 4.8")

Snow was slow to get going in the metro last night and this morning, and we actually underestimated the prolific burst that produced over a foot in some places. Maybe we could get as high as a B+ with this system given the high degree of difficulty.

Can't wait for the next one!

PH